Giorgio Gilestro
3b9f4f7893
One self-contained README.md per results/ figure folder (Layer 1 E1-E6 and Layer 1.5 bridge/collapse/grounding/architectures/recombination): plain-language claim, setup, a compact symbol glossary, a panel-by-panel walkthrough, and the takeaway + falsifier. Auto-renders when browsing the folder; carries the honest caveats (grounding's ruler reframing, the excluded VAE). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
33 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
33 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
# E3 — Grounding must overlap the content it protects
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**Claim tested:** if your budget of real data is fixed, does it matter *where* you spend it? Is it
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enough to sprinkle real data uniformly, or must it target the knowledge you care about?
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**Setup (Layer 1, pure math).** `K = 1000` items divided into `R = 10` disjoint **regions** (think
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subject areas). `n = 200`, 400 generations, 100 repeats. The **same total** real-data budget is
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spent two ways: **uniform** (spread evenly over all 10 regions) vs **matched** (concentrated on the
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"exercised" region we want to protect). One region is designated exercised (region 0 here) and has a
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rare tail we track.
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### Symbols
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- **region** — a block of related items; a stand-in for a task family / subject area.
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- **matched vs uniform** — real data aimed at the exercised region vs spread evenly, at equal total budget.
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- **tail items alive** — how many rare items in a region still have any probability.
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### The two panels
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1. **Target region over time.** Rare-item survival in the exercised region, generation by generation:
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blue = matched, red = uniform (bands = 95% CI). Matched **holds** the region's tail alive; uniform
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spreads too thin and lets it **collapse**.
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2. **Every region at steady state.** Bar chart of stationary tail survival per region, matched (blue)
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vs uniform (red); the dotted line marks the exercised region. Matched wins big *there* — at the
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cost of the regions it deliberately ignores. Uniform is mediocre everywhere.
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*(Note: per-region diversity `H` is confounded by how much probability mass sits in a region, so this
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figure uses the honest, mass-independent metric — tail-item survival.)*
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### Takeaway
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Reality checks only protect what they actually cover. To keep a capability alive you must ground
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**on that capability**, not on data in general — grounding is local, not a global tonic. Key numbers:
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exercised-region tail survival ≈ **0.49 (matched)** vs **0.07 (uniform)** at equal budget.
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**Falsifier (not triggered):** if uniform had protected the region as well as matched, the
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targeting claim would die.
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