Giorgio Gilestro
84124de143
Clarity pass over the main text (36-item audit), Discussion rewrite and cut, acknowledgements, Souly et al. as ref 62, lettered SI panels, model section moved under Results; plus the untracked curriculum/society/compose/smol configs, runners, figures, stats and tests that the SI already cites. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Y64o8FKP7rCuXzC48pxpMm
69 lines
3.4 KiB
Python
69 lines
3.4 KiB
Python
"""Conflict-arrival curricula (SI figure): does the declinable merge's decline rate, and the obligate
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merge's collapse, follow the generation at which conflicting conventions arrive?
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Left: fraction of proposed merges declined per generation (mean over seeds, 95% CI) for each
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curriculum; a filled marker on the curve marks the first generation at which both conflicting
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families (boolq, winogrande) are present in every lineage. Right: best-lineage all-families accuracy
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of the OBLIGATE society arm per curriculum, same marker. Curricula: Latin square (conflict from
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generation 5), decorrelated (from 4), conflict-early (from 2), conflict-late (from 6).
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Reads the committed curriculum bundles through stats_llm_curriculum (no re-simulation).
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Usage: python figures/plot_curriculum_timing.py [out_dir=results/llm_curriculum_v5_early]
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import numpy as np
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent))
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from _figlib import mean_ci, savefig, letter_axes # noqa: E402
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from stats_llm_curriculum import CONFLICT_FROM, best_lineage, decline_table, load_curriculum # noqa: E402
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STYLE = {"latin": ("#7f7f7f", "Latin square"), "decor": ("#2c7fb8", "decorrelated"),
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"early": ("#d62728", "conflict-early"), "late": ("#2ca02c", "conflict-late")}
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OBLIGATE = {"latin": "society", "early": "early_society", "late": "late_society"}
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def main(out_dir: str = "results/llm_curriculum_v5_early") -> None:
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df = load_curriculum()
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tab = decline_table(df)
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best = best_lineage(df)
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fig, (a1, a2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 3.8))
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for cur, (color, label) in STYLE.items():
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sub = tab[tab["curriculum"] == cur]
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if len(sub):
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x, m, h = mean_ci(sub, "generation", "declined")
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a1.errorbar(x + 1, m, yerr=np.nan_to_num(h), fmt="-o", color=color, capsize=3, label=label,
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markerfacecolor="white")
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g0 = CONFLICT_FROM[cur]
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if g0 in set(x):
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a1.plot(g0 + 1, m[list(x).index(g0)], "o", color=color, ms=12, markeredgecolor="black", markeredgewidth=1.2)
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arm = OBLIGATE.get(cur)
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ob = best[(best["curriculum"] == cur) & (best["arm"] == arm)] if arm else best.iloc[0:0]
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if len(ob):
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x, m, h = mean_ci(ob, "generation", "value")
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a2.errorbar(x + 1, m, yerr=np.nan_to_num(h), fmt="-o", color=color, capsize=3, label=label,
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markerfacecolor="white")
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g0 = CONFLICT_FROM[cur]
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if g0 in set(x):
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a2.plot(g0 + 1, m[list(x).index(g0)], "o", color=color, ms=12, markeredgecolor="black", markeredgewidth=1.2)
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a1.set(xlabel="generation", ylabel="fraction of merges declined", ylim=(-0.02, 1.05),
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title="declinable merge: decline rate")
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a2.set(xlabel="generation", ylabel="best-lineage accuracy, all families", ylim=(0.1, 0.9),
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title="obligate merge: accuracy")
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a1.plot([], [], "o", color="white", ms=10, markeredgecolor="black", markeredgewidth=1.2,
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label="first generation with both\nconflicting conventions")
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a1.legend(frameon=False, fontsize=8); a2.legend(frameon=False, fontsize=8)
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for a in (a1, a2):
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a.set_xticks(range(1, 7))
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fig.tight_layout()
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letter_axes(fig)
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savefig(fig, out_dir, "curriculum_timing")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main(*sys.argv[1:])
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