MachineSex/results/llm_moe_hard_seeds_smol/README.md
Giorgio Gilestro 84124de143 Manuscript revision and pending experiment work, snapshot before restructuring
Clarity pass over the main text (36-item audit), Discussion rewrite and cut,
acknowledgements, Souly et al. as ref 62, lettered SI panels, model section
moved under Results; plus the untracked curriculum/society/compose/smol
configs, runners, figures, stats and tests that the SI already cites.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Y64o8FKP7rCuXzC48pxpMm
2026-09-13 16:54:09 +01:00

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llm_moe_hard_seeds_smol — the headroom rule on a second base lineage (SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct)

Claim tested (manuscript revision 2026-09-12). Union (routing among intact specialists) beats fusion (weight averaging) wherever the average falls short of attainable performance. Replicates llm_moe_hard_seeds (hard task variant, 400 training tasks, 80 test tasks per family, soup / TIES / oracle router / learned router, 3 training seeds) on HuggingFaceTB/SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct. Ran in 7 min on one L40S (hpc/llm_smol.pbs). Numbers from figures/stats_llm_smol.py.

Result — replicates, 3/3 seeds, larger margin than on Qwen

contrast (SmolLM2, hard) overall worst family
routing (learned = oracle) soup +0.162 ± 0.036 (3/3) +0.221 ± 0.029 (3/3)
soup best specialist 0.029 ± 0.017 (3/3 below) +0.012 ± 0.014
(Qwen2.5-0.5B) routing soup +0.100 ± 0.090 (3/3) +0.150 ± 0.075 (3/3)
(Qwen) soup best specialist 0.025 ± 0.122 (1/3 above) 0.000 ± 0.102

Absolute levels (SmolLM2): best specialist 0.194, soup 0.165, routing 0.328 overall. Two riders carry over unchanged: the learned router equals the oracle (the families are lexically separable, so routing is easy here), and on this base the soup falls below the best single specialist in every seed, the dilution the Qwen 0.5B hard run showed in one seed of three. Falsifier (not triggered): routing ≤ soup in a majority of seeds.