voice: first-person singular for single authorship
All 37 first-person-plural instances converted: 'I' where the author acts or judges (I transfer, I measured, I aligned, to my knowledge, the only anchor I trust — 18 instances, ~one per 260 words), impersonal constructions elsewhere (the simulator, the tested settings, this paper poses). 'What is borrowed and what is ours' -> 'what is new'; 'Ours is the framework-level synthesis' -> 'New here is'. Reference titles containing 'we' untouched. 19 pp rebuild clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v
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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Artificial intelligence increasingly consists of populations of models rather th
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Models are fine-tuned from common ancestors, trained on data that earlier models generated, and
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combined by weight merging. These practices couple model generations the way reproduction couples
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biological generations, and they raise the same question: how does a population retain and
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accumulate abilities over time? We transfer the population genetics of sexual reproduction to this
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accumulate abilities over time? I transfer the population genetics of sexual reproduction to this
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setting and test it in simulations, small neural networks, and language models. The framework
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recasts continual learning at the population scale and yields design rules: how much real data
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retraining requires, when to combine models, when to keep them separate, and how to anticipate a
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@ -20,20 +20,20 @@ failed combination before making it.
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AI development increasingly resembles a population process. Models are specialised, retrained on
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model output, and recombined by weight merging, and the practice is described in evolutionary
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vocabulary with little use of evolutionary theory. We treat multigenerational model populations as
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systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and we transfer the
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vocabulary with little use of evolutionary theory. I treat multigenerational model populations as
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systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and transfer the
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quantitative framework of the evolution of sex. Its starting point, that training on model output is
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genetic drift and model collapse its signature, is by now established from several independent
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directions; we develop the structure that follows from it. In a minimal
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directions; I develop the structure that follows from it. In a minimal
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inheritance model that is exactly Wright–Fisher, and measurably Wright–Fisher plus estimator bias in
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trained networks, we derive and test remedies. Grounding acts as immigration: a real-data fraction
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trained networks, I derive and test remedies. Grounding acts as immigration: a real-data fraction
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far below one retained most equilibrium diversity, with a per-capability observation floor that
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makes the rarest knowledge expensive under unstratified sampling. Refitting a child to the mean of
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its parents' output distributions cancels the multi-parent gain to first order in the rare-item
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regime; union-preserving operators realise it. Merged language-model specialists exceeded every
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parent in replicated experiments. Blind recombination fails on rugged task landscapes; screening
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candidate offspring restores the gain. The optimal mating breadth narrows as skills entangle.
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Finally, we introduce model speciation: a merge barrier remaining after permutation-and-rescaling
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Finally, I introduce model speciation: a merge barrier remaining after permutation-and-rescaling
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alignment tracks functional conflict, isolation did not emerge from compatible specialisation, and
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in a controlled test pre-merge functional disagreement predicted merge damage while weight-geometry
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baselines showed no detectable association.
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@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ machine-generated or machine-translated text (14, 15), and the stock of human te
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exhausted by frontier training within this decade (16). Meanwhile persistent multi-agent systems and
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emerging agent economies put many interacting models into sustained contact (17–20). A population
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whose members inherit from one another, recombine, and retransmit under these conditions is an
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evolving population in the technical sense, and that observation motivates this work. Here we
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evolving population in the technical sense, and that observation motivates this work. Here I
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transfer the quantitative framework of the branch of biology built for exactly this situation, the
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population genetics of the evolution of sex, and use it to treat multigenerational model populations
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as systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility can be measured, predicted, and managed.
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@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ when should specialists be kept separate rather than consolidated? In practice t
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convention and by trial-and-error search. They are also, recognisably, machine learning's oldest
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problem at a new scale: *continual learning*, the struggle to acquire new abilities without losing old
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ones (26, 27), transposed from a single network to a population whose members inherit from one
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another. Population genetics, we will argue, prices these decisions. Table 1 summarises the
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another. Population genetics, I will argue, prices these decisions. Table 1 summarises the
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correspondences on which the argument runs; the sections that follow develop them from closed-form
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theory to experiments in trained networks and language models.
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@ -99,19 +99,19 @@ Knowledge is modelled as a distribution `p_t` over `K` discrete items (capabilit
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behaviour), with a fixed true distribution `p*` whose rare tail carries the knowledge most at risk.
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One generation is: *draw `n` samples from the parent's distribution, optionally mix in `m` verified
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real samples ("grounding", `g = m/(n+m)`), and refit the child*. In this minimal inheritance model the
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resampling step *is* the Wright–Fisher process: the same equations, which we exploit as an
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engineering gate: our simulator reproduces the classical closed forms (heterozygosity decay
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resampling step *is* the Wright–Fisher process: the same equations, which I exploit as an
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engineering gate: the simulator reproduces the classical closed forms (heterozygosity decay
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`E[H_t] = H_0(1 − 1/n)^t`; the exact immigration–drift equilibrium; the closed-form multi-teacher
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union) to within 0.5%, and these are standing tests in the codebase, not one-off checks.
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The boundary of the exactness matters, and we measured it rather than assumed it. Real training adds
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The boundary of the exactness matters, and I measured it rather than assumed it. Real training adds
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approximation, optimisation noise, and inductive bias, and when trained networks are fit against the
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exact drift null they deviate in *opposite, architecture-specific* directions: a smoothing recurrent
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network resists collapse (keeping spurious variants alive), while a sharpening image generator
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accelerates it. A one-parameter *learning kernel* (a smoothing knob and a sharpening knob on the
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refit) reproduces both. Throughout, a real learner is therefore treated as Wright–Fisher *plus a signed, measurable
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estimator bias*, and the drift signs (rare-first loss; the grounding response)
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survived that bias in every architecture we tested, including a convolutional VAE retrained on its own
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survived that bias in every architecture I tested, including a convolutional VAE retrained on its own
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generated digits, where the dry lineage collapses to a single blurred digit class while 10% grounding
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holds all thirty modes (Fig. 1). One consequence of drift deserves its genetic name. Retraining on a
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single parent is *asexual reproduction*, and sustained loss under it carries the defining consequence
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@ -141,9 +141,9 @@ known limits is SI Appendix, Table S1.
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### Grounding is immigration: cheap, with a floor
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In the minimal model, grounding from a fixed real source is *immigration* into a drifting population
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(29–31), and the equilibrium diversity has a closed form our simulator matches exactly. That equilibrium is
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(29–31), and the equilibrium diversity has a closed form the simulator matches exactly. That equilibrium is
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*smooth* in the grounding fraction (there is no phase transition in aggregate diversity), so the
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practical number is an operational threshold, and we define it as such: under the tested population
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practical number is an operational threshold, and I define it as such: under the tested population
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size and Zipf source distribution, `g ≈ 0.05` retained most (≥95%) of equilibrium diversity
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indefinitely, with the required fraction depending on sample size, source distribution, and the
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chosen retention target (dependencies in SI). The engineering point survives the definition: verified
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@ -155,7 +155,7 @@ accordingly, and with distinct consequences for continuous retention, stationary
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reintroduction after loss (immigration can restore an absent item; SI separates these). Protecting the
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rarest knowledge under unstratified grounding is therefore priced per item at cost `∝ 1/p`; targeted
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or stratified sampling changes that cost, and recombination can recover rare capabilities *that are
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still retained across complementary parents* (next section). In trained networks the *sign* of the grounding response transfers everywhere we
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still retained across complementary parents* (next section). In trained networks the *sign* of the grounding response transfers everywhere I
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looked, with two deviations, both traced to the estimator bias above: sharp thresholds soften,
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and support-counting metrics decouple from truth (forward-KL is the operative collapse metric for a
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smoothing learner). On real images (Fig. 1B), dry self-training collapses a convolutional VAE to one
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@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ fraction, the measured price of the estimator bias).
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### Recombination: a conservation law, its operators, and offspring that exceed every parent
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The largest returns from the transfer concern merging. We begin with a result about the most common
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The largest returns from the transfer concern merging. I begin with a result about the most common
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operator, stated with its assumptions. **Proposition (blending inheritance, rare-item
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regime).** Let K parents independently retain a rare item (mass `p` when retained), and let the child
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draw `n` samples either from one parent chosen at random or from the *mean of the parents' output
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@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ data channel). In the society model, grounding is *grounded evaluation*: selecti
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fitness against conformity to the population's own consensus, `g`·true-fitness + (1−g)·conformity,
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the analogue of scoring models by the crowd's approval (the fitness channel). These are related design
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ideas, since both couple the lineage to a non-drifting external signal, but they are different operators,
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and we name them separately. In the tested society (a finite agent population on a rugged NK
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and I name them separately. In the tested society (a finite agent population on a rugged NK
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landscape), a four-arm ablation separates the failure modes: the full system (grounded evaluation +
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directed recombination + diversity-preserving selection (37)) climbs to near the global optimum while
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keeping its specialists; removing grounded evaluation converges the population confidently on an unfit
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@ -241,16 +241,16 @@ language-model scale this composed loop remains unbuilt; it is the paper's large
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Recombination presupposes compatible parents. In biology, lineages pushed far enough apart become
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separate species (*reproductive isolation*) through Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities (38, 39):
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changes harmless on their own background but deleterious in combination. A merged model is exactly the
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exposed hybrid. We built the analytic model (Fig. 5A): hybrid fitness tracks the parents while
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exposed hybrid. I built the analytic model (Fig. 5A): hybrid fitness tracks the parents while
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compatible, then peels off and crashes below the ancestor; the isolation cliff arrives earlier the
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denser the incompatibilities; and the incompatibility *count* snowballs quadratically with divergence
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(39). We note that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
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(39). Note that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
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the count-to-effect-size link, which the analytic model supplies under its assumptions and any neural
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test must establish separately.
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In trained networks, the claim must survive a known alternative: merge barriers between independently
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trained networks are famously *coordinate artefacts*, removable by re-aligning hidden units (40);
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richer symmetry groups remove more (41), with known failures beyond the shared-data regime (42). We therefore aligned under the composition of
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richer symmetry groups remove more (41), with known failures beyond the shared-data regime (42). I therefore aligned under the composition of
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permutation matching and exact per-unit rescaling (the unit symmetry group of plain ReLU MLPs, as the
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search space) and decomposed the barrier (Fig. 5 C and D): two networks trained from different
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initialisations on the *same* task have a barrier that this alignment removes essentially entirely
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@ -266,7 +266,7 @@ Proposition S2), with the framework's role being the *structure around it*: whic
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generate conflict, and what moves the cliff.
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The strongest constraint comes from the pre-registered *emergent test*: true BDM incompatibilities are
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emergent (each lineage's changes harmless alone), so we let children diverge with *no conflicting
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emergent (each lineage's changes harmless alone), so I let children diverge with *no conflicting
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signal anywhere*, using complementary class specialists and divergent input conventions, to 6.4× the base
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training. No isolation emerged (residual 0.000 throughout); instead the merge *rescued* the two
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catastrophically-forgetting specialists (parents ≈ 0.50, merge ≈ 0.955, a sustained Fisher–Muller
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@ -285,7 +285,7 @@ on shared circuitry, not divergence per se.
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The framework's prediction-level claim was put to a designed test (Fig. 6C). Thirty-nine parent pairs
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(13 conditions × 3 seeds; rows are not independent — parents share task-data seeds across conditions,
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so inference is condition-clustered, and because shared seeds also couple rows *across* conditions we
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so inference is condition-clustered, and because shared seeds also couple rows *across* conditions I
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report per-seed and leave-one-seed-out sensitivity alongside) span three axes decorrelated by construction: *conflict*
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(contradictory conventions on shared prompts, private budgets fixed), *compatible overlap* (the same
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shared prompts under the same convention — overlap and volume without conflict), and *duration* (weight
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@ -335,7 +335,7 @@ are the experiment's open front.
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## Discussion
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**Design rules.** As engineering guidance, the results reduce to rules that an operator of a model
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population can apply, answering the four decisions posed in the Introduction. *Ground every generation* in verified reality — a few percent retained most diversity in our tested
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population can apply, answering the four decisions posed in the Introduction. *Ground every generation* in verified reality — a few percent retained most diversity in the tested
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settings — but price the rarest capabilities individually (observation probability `1 − e^{−m·p}` per
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batch under unstratified sampling), consider targeted sampling for the deep tail, and use
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recombination to recover rare capabilities still retained across complementary parents. *Merge, don't blend, when there is headroom*: keep specialists
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@ -345,9 +345,9 @@ the operator to entanglement*: merge freely when skills are additive; sparingly,
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selection, when they entangle; and expect the champion-optimal mating breadth to narrow as landscapes
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roughen. *Preserve diversity as a first-class objective*, because selection can only preserve variety that
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exists, and in the tested society its removal produced a distinct failure mode. *Before merging,
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measure functional conflict* — cheap, pre-merge, and in our controlled setting predictive where the
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measure functional conflict* — cheap, pre-merge, and in the controlled setting predictive where the
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tested weight-distance baselines were not; and *do not treat divergence or specialisation alone as
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evidence of incompatibility* — in every regime we tested, what broke merging was conflicting
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evidence of incompatibility* — in every regime tested here, what broke merging was conflicting
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conventions on shared circuitry, which is the thing to detect.
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**Continual learning at the population scale.** Within a single network, the discipline's remedies
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@ -364,7 +364,7 @@ adapter-into-base merge; the recent turn to merging as a continual-learning mech
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recombination within one lineage over time, where this paper applies it across lineages; and the
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observation that rare examples and long-tail knowledge are forgotten first (59–61) is tail extinction
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seen one model at a time. The mechanisms differ (forgetting is largely deterministic interference,
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collapse is sampling drift) but the victims and the remedies coincide, and to our knowledge no prior
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collapse is sampling drift) but the victims and the remedies coincide, and to my knowledge no prior
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work carries population-genetic formalism into continual learning. Read into that field, the results
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offer: (i) an equilibrium theory for the replay ratio, with the sharper prediction that the required
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fraction is set by the rarest capability one refuses to lose (the `1 − e^{−m·p}` law) rather than by
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@ -379,23 +379,23 @@ splits the field's practice (keep adapters separate vs merge them; 54–58): uni
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where headroom exists, fusion where the base composes, consolidation as the slow-store step; and (v)
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*tail monitoring as the leading indicator*: continual-learning evaluation that averages over
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capabilities hides exactly the losses that drift theory says come first and, past a threshold, become
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irreversible. On that last point we note the standing objection that apparent forgetting can be
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skewed task-inference over latent capability rather than erasure (62); our irreversibility results
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irreversible. On that last point I note the standing objection that apparent forgetting can be
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skewed task-inference over latent capability rather than erasure (62); the irreversibility results here
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concern oracle-measured behavioural distributions, and distinguishing latent from extinct capability
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at language-model scale is an open experiment whose outcome would be decisive for both readings.
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**What is borrowed and what is ours.** The collapse-as-drift diagnosis is established prior work
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**What is borrowed and what is new.** The collapse-as-drift diagnosis is established prior work
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(21–25); so are the empirical facts that merges can beat parents, that decorrelated parents merge better, and that
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naive averaging loses to interference-aware or routed merges (4, 63, 64), that model populations can
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climb (5, 8–10), and that merge success admits ML-native predictors (44, 65), correlational where this framework
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supplies mechanism; the reading of sex as an algorithm for mixability in the theory of computation
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(66) anticipated the transfer before model merging existed. Ours is the framework-level
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(66) anticipated the transfer before model merging existed. New here is the framework-level
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synthesis — inheritance, diversity, and compatibility as managed quantities — together with: the
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conservation law for blending inheritance and its operator boundaries; the per-item grounding floor;
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the society ablation with its complementary failure modes; model speciation as a named, tested question, with the
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coordinate-versus-functional decomposition under permutation-and-rescaling alignment and the emergent
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null that bounds it; and the controlled predictive test with its controls. We claim the framework generated
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these measurements and experiments; we do not claim their outcomes validate a uniquely
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null that bounds it; and the controlled predictive test with its controls. I claim the framework generated
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these measurements and experiments; I do not claim that their outcomes validate a uniquely
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population-genetic mechanism, and one refinement it proposed was not supported.
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**Limits and open problems.** The demonstrations are deliberately small: exact where small is a virtue,
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@ -405,9 +405,9 @@ built at language-model scale. The predictive test's next bars, in order of valu
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*unfamiliar* conflict structures and real task pairs; a demonstrably better *budget-matched* merging
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decision; then scale replication. Beyond engineering, the framework's hardest open problem is the
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fitness function itself: selection optimises what is measured, and for knowledge systems the
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persuasive and the true compete — grounding against a reality that can refuse is the only anchor we
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persuasive and the true compete — grounding against a reality that can refuse is the only anchor I
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trust, and institutionalising that anchor (verification, replication, and challenge among models) is
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the society-level problem we pose but do not solve. What biology receives in return is a new model
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the society-level problem this paper poses but does not solve. What biology receives in return is a new model
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system: populations of learners where every genotype, environment, and mating decision is observable
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and manipulable — where the evolution of sex can be studied with interventions (unbounded parents,
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offspring preview, directed mating) that no living system permits.
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(inheritance), merging and routing of specialist fine-tunes (recombination and population structure),
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verifier-gated data pipelines (grounded selection), and periodic consolidation of adapters into new
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bases. The framework's reading of that trajectory is concrete. If coming model generations remain what
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our tested regimes found, freely recombinable in the absence of conflicting conventions, then the
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the tested regimes found, freely recombinable in the absence of conflicting conventions, then the
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ecosystem evolves as one interbreeding population, and the levers that matter are grounding budgets
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priced per rare capability and diversity preserved deliberately. If instead long-horizon
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specialisation at scale begins to produce emergent incompatibility, as the expert-training-duration
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observations hint (43) and our small-scale null does not rule out, then lineages will begin to
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observations hint (43) and the small-scale null here does not rule out, then lineages will begin to
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speciate, and the ecosystem's future is a set of diverging species connected by routing rather than by
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merging. Which of the two it will be is measurable now, with the pre-merge conflict instruments this
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paper tested.
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