voice: first-person singular for single authorship

All 37 first-person-plural instances converted: 'I' where the author
acts or judges (I transfer, I measured, I aligned, to my knowledge, the
only anchor I trust — 18 instances, ~one per 260 words), impersonal
constructions elsewhere (the simulator, the tested settings, this paper
poses). 'What is borrowed and what is ours' -> 'what is new'; 'Ours is
the framework-level synthesis' -> 'New here is'. Reference titles
containing 'we' untouched. 19 pp rebuild clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v
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Giorgio Gilestro 2026-09-07 10:29:54 +01:00
parent d58f1c7ee6
commit e2b398c897
3 changed files with 54 additions and 54 deletions

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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Artificial intelligence increasingly consists of populations of models rather th
Models are fine-tuned from common ancestors, trained on data that earlier models generated, and
combined by weight merging. These practices couple model generations the way reproduction couples
biological generations, and they raise the same question: how does a population retain and
accumulate abilities over time? We transfer the population genetics of sexual reproduction to this
accumulate abilities over time? I transfer the population genetics of sexual reproduction to this
setting and test it in simulations, small neural networks, and language models. The framework
recasts continual learning at the population scale and yields design rules: how much real data
retraining requires, when to combine models, when to keep them separate, and how to anticipate a
@ -20,20 +20,20 @@ failed combination before making it.
AI development increasingly resembles a population process. Models are specialised, retrained on
model output, and recombined by weight merging, and the practice is described in evolutionary
vocabulary with little use of evolutionary theory. We treat multigenerational model populations as
systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and we transfer the
vocabulary with little use of evolutionary theory. I treat multigenerational model populations as
systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and transfer the
quantitative framework of the evolution of sex. Its starting point, that training on model output is
genetic drift and model collapse its signature, is by now established from several independent
directions; we develop the structure that follows from it. In a minimal
directions; I develop the structure that follows from it. In a minimal
inheritance model that is exactly WrightFisher, and measurably WrightFisher plus estimator bias in
trained networks, we derive and test remedies. Grounding acts as immigration: a real-data fraction
trained networks, I derive and test remedies. Grounding acts as immigration: a real-data fraction
far below one retained most equilibrium diversity, with a per-capability observation floor that
makes the rarest knowledge expensive under unstratified sampling. Refitting a child to the mean of
its parents' output distributions cancels the multi-parent gain to first order in the rare-item
regime; union-preserving operators realise it. Merged language-model specialists exceeded every
parent in replicated experiments. Blind recombination fails on rugged task landscapes; screening
candidate offspring restores the gain. The optimal mating breadth narrows as skills entangle.
Finally, we introduce model speciation: a merge barrier remaining after permutation-and-rescaling
Finally, I introduce model speciation: a merge barrier remaining after permutation-and-rescaling
alignment tracks functional conflict, isolation did not emerge from compatible specialisation, and
in a controlled test pre-merge functional disagreement predicted merge damage while weight-geometry
baselines showed no detectable association.
@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ machine-generated or machine-translated text (14, 15), and the stock of human te
exhausted by frontier training within this decade (16). Meanwhile persistent multi-agent systems and
emerging agent economies put many interacting models into sustained contact (1720). A population
whose members inherit from one another, recombine, and retransmit under these conditions is an
evolving population in the technical sense, and that observation motivates this work. Here we
evolving population in the technical sense, and that observation motivates this work. Here I
transfer the quantitative framework of the branch of biology built for exactly this situation, the
population genetics of the evolution of sex, and use it to treat multigenerational model populations
as systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility can be measured, predicted, and managed.
@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ when should specialists be kept separate rather than consolidated? In practice t
convention and by trial-and-error search. They are also, recognisably, machine learning's oldest
problem at a new scale: *continual learning*, the struggle to acquire new abilities without losing old
ones (26, 27), transposed from a single network to a population whose members inherit from one
another. Population genetics, we will argue, prices these decisions. Table 1 summarises the
another. Population genetics, I will argue, prices these decisions. Table 1 summarises the
correspondences on which the argument runs; the sections that follow develop them from closed-form
theory to experiments in trained networks and language models.
@ -99,19 +99,19 @@ Knowledge is modelled as a distribution `p_t` over `K` discrete items (capabilit
behaviour), with a fixed true distribution `p*` whose rare tail carries the knowledge most at risk.
One generation is: *draw `n` samples from the parent's distribution, optionally mix in `m` verified
real samples ("grounding", `g = m/(n+m)`), and refit the child*. In this minimal inheritance model the
resampling step *is* the WrightFisher process: the same equations, which we exploit as an
engineering gate: our simulator reproduces the classical closed forms (heterozygosity decay
resampling step *is* the WrightFisher process: the same equations, which I exploit as an
engineering gate: the simulator reproduces the classical closed forms (heterozygosity decay
`E[H_t] = H_0(1 1/n)^t`; the exact immigrationdrift equilibrium; the closed-form multi-teacher
union) to within 0.5%, and these are standing tests in the codebase, not one-off checks.
The boundary of the exactness matters, and we measured it rather than assumed it. Real training adds
The boundary of the exactness matters, and I measured it rather than assumed it. Real training adds
approximation, optimisation noise, and inductive bias, and when trained networks are fit against the
exact drift null they deviate in *opposite, architecture-specific* directions: a smoothing recurrent
network resists collapse (keeping spurious variants alive), while a sharpening image generator
accelerates it. A one-parameter *learning kernel* (a smoothing knob and a sharpening knob on the
refit) reproduces both. Throughout, a real learner is therefore treated as WrightFisher *plus a signed, measurable
estimator bias*, and the drift signs (rare-first loss; the grounding response)
survived that bias in every architecture we tested, including a convolutional VAE retrained on its own
survived that bias in every architecture I tested, including a convolutional VAE retrained on its own
generated digits, where the dry lineage collapses to a single blurred digit class while 10% grounding
holds all thirty modes (Fig. 1). One consequence of drift deserves its genetic name. Retraining on a
single parent is *asexual reproduction*, and sustained loss under it carries the defining consequence
@ -141,9 +141,9 @@ known limits is SI Appendix, Table S1.
### Grounding is immigration: cheap, with a floor
In the minimal model, grounding from a fixed real source is *immigration* into a drifting population
(2931), and the equilibrium diversity has a closed form our simulator matches exactly. That equilibrium is
(2931), and the equilibrium diversity has a closed form the simulator matches exactly. That equilibrium is
*smooth* in the grounding fraction (there is no phase transition in aggregate diversity), so the
practical number is an operational threshold, and we define it as such: under the tested population
practical number is an operational threshold, and I define it as such: under the tested population
size and Zipf source distribution, `g ≈ 0.05` retained most (≥95%) of equilibrium diversity
indefinitely, with the required fraction depending on sample size, source distribution, and the
chosen retention target (dependencies in SI). The engineering point survives the definition: verified
@ -155,7 +155,7 @@ accordingly, and with distinct consequences for continuous retention, stationary
reintroduction after loss (immigration can restore an absent item; SI separates these). Protecting the
rarest knowledge under unstratified grounding is therefore priced per item at cost `∝ 1/p`; targeted
or stratified sampling changes that cost, and recombination can recover rare capabilities *that are
still retained across complementary parents* (next section). In trained networks the *sign* of the grounding response transfers everywhere we
still retained across complementary parents* (next section). In trained networks the *sign* of the grounding response transfers everywhere I
looked, with two deviations, both traced to the estimator bias above: sharp thresholds soften,
and support-counting metrics decouple from truth (forward-KL is the operative collapse metric for a
smoothing learner). On real images (Fig. 1B), dry self-training collapses a convolutional VAE to one
@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ fraction, the measured price of the estimator bias).
### Recombination: a conservation law, its operators, and offspring that exceed every parent
The largest returns from the transfer concern merging. We begin with a result about the most common
The largest returns from the transfer concern merging. I begin with a result about the most common
operator, stated with its assumptions. **Proposition (blending inheritance, rare-item
regime).** Let K parents independently retain a rare item (mass `p` when retained), and let the child
draw `n` samples either from one parent chosen at random or from the *mean of the parents' output
@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ data channel). In the society model, grounding is *grounded evaluation*: selecti
fitness against conformity to the population's own consensus, `g`·true-fitness + (1g)·conformity,
the analogue of scoring models by the crowd's approval (the fitness channel). These are related design
ideas, since both couple the lineage to a non-drifting external signal, but they are different operators,
and we name them separately. In the tested society (a finite agent population on a rugged NK
and I name them separately. In the tested society (a finite agent population on a rugged NK
landscape), a four-arm ablation separates the failure modes: the full system (grounded evaluation +
directed recombination + diversity-preserving selection (37)) climbs to near the global optimum while
keeping its specialists; removing grounded evaluation converges the population confidently on an unfit
@ -241,16 +241,16 @@ language-model scale this composed loop remains unbuilt; it is the paper's large
Recombination presupposes compatible parents. In biology, lineages pushed far enough apart become
separate species (*reproductive isolation*) through BatesonDobzhanskyMuller incompatibilities (38, 39):
changes harmless on their own background but deleterious in combination. A merged model is exactly the
exposed hybrid. We built the analytic model (Fig. 5A): hybrid fitness tracks the parents while
exposed hybrid. I built the analytic model (Fig. 5A): hybrid fitness tracks the parents while
compatible, then peels off and crashes below the ancestor; the isolation cliff arrives earlier the
denser the incompatibilities; and the incompatibility *count* snowballs quadratically with divergence
(39). We note that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
(39). Note that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
the count-to-effect-size link, which the analytic model supplies under its assumptions and any neural
test must establish separately.
In trained networks, the claim must survive a known alternative: merge barriers between independently
trained networks are famously *coordinate artefacts*, removable by re-aligning hidden units (40);
richer symmetry groups remove more (41), with known failures beyond the shared-data regime (42). We therefore aligned under the composition of
richer symmetry groups remove more (41), with known failures beyond the shared-data regime (42). I therefore aligned under the composition of
permutation matching and exact per-unit rescaling (the unit symmetry group of plain ReLU MLPs, as the
search space) and decomposed the barrier (Fig. 5 C and D): two networks trained from different
initialisations on the *same* task have a barrier that this alignment removes essentially entirely
@ -266,7 +266,7 @@ Proposition S2), with the framework's role being the *structure around it*: whic
generate conflict, and what moves the cliff.
The strongest constraint comes from the pre-registered *emergent test*: true BDM incompatibilities are
emergent (each lineage's changes harmless alone), so we let children diverge with *no conflicting
emergent (each lineage's changes harmless alone), so I let children diverge with *no conflicting
signal anywhere*, using complementary class specialists and divergent input conventions, to 6.4× the base
training. No isolation emerged (residual 0.000 throughout); instead the merge *rescued* the two
catastrophically-forgetting specialists (parents ≈ 0.50, merge ≈ 0.955, a sustained FisherMuller
@ -285,7 +285,7 @@ on shared circuitry, not divergence per se.
The framework's prediction-level claim was put to a designed test (Fig. 6C). Thirty-nine parent pairs
(13 conditions × 3 seeds; rows are not independent — parents share task-data seeds across conditions,
so inference is condition-clustered, and because shared seeds also couple rows *across* conditions we
so inference is condition-clustered, and because shared seeds also couple rows *across* conditions I
report per-seed and leave-one-seed-out sensitivity alongside) span three axes decorrelated by construction: *conflict*
(contradictory conventions on shared prompts, private budgets fixed), *compatible overlap* (the same
shared prompts under the same convention — overlap and volume without conflict), and *duration* (weight
@ -335,7 +335,7 @@ are the experiment's open front.
## Discussion
**Design rules.** As engineering guidance, the results reduce to rules that an operator of a model
population can apply, answering the four decisions posed in the Introduction. *Ground every generation* in verified reality — a few percent retained most diversity in our tested
population can apply, answering the four decisions posed in the Introduction. *Ground every generation* in verified reality — a few percent retained most diversity in the tested
settings — but price the rarest capabilities individually (observation probability `1 e^{m·p}` per
batch under unstratified sampling), consider targeted sampling for the deep tail, and use
recombination to recover rare capabilities still retained across complementary parents. *Merge, don't blend, when there is headroom*: keep specialists
@ -345,9 +345,9 @@ the operator to entanglement*: merge freely when skills are additive; sparingly,
selection, when they entangle; and expect the champion-optimal mating breadth to narrow as landscapes
roughen. *Preserve diversity as a first-class objective*, because selection can only preserve variety that
exists, and in the tested society its removal produced a distinct failure mode. *Before merging,
measure functional conflict* — cheap, pre-merge, and in our controlled setting predictive where the
measure functional conflict* — cheap, pre-merge, and in the controlled setting predictive where the
tested weight-distance baselines were not; and *do not treat divergence or specialisation alone as
evidence of incompatibility* — in every regime we tested, what broke merging was conflicting
evidence of incompatibility* — in every regime tested here, what broke merging was conflicting
conventions on shared circuitry, which is the thing to detect.
**Continual learning at the population scale.** Within a single network, the discipline's remedies
@ -364,7 +364,7 @@ adapter-into-base merge; the recent turn to merging as a continual-learning mech
recombination within one lineage over time, where this paper applies it across lineages; and the
observation that rare examples and long-tail knowledge are forgotten first (5961) is tail extinction
seen one model at a time. The mechanisms differ (forgetting is largely deterministic interference,
collapse is sampling drift) but the victims and the remedies coincide, and to our knowledge no prior
collapse is sampling drift) but the victims and the remedies coincide, and to my knowledge no prior
work carries population-genetic formalism into continual learning. Read into that field, the results
offer: (i) an equilibrium theory for the replay ratio, with the sharper prediction that the required
fraction is set by the rarest capability one refuses to lose (the `1 e^{m·p}` law) rather than by
@ -379,23 +379,23 @@ splits the field's practice (keep adapters separate vs merge them; 5458): uni
where headroom exists, fusion where the base composes, consolidation as the slow-store step; and (v)
*tail monitoring as the leading indicator*: continual-learning evaluation that averages over
capabilities hides exactly the losses that drift theory says come first and, past a threshold, become
irreversible. On that last point we note the standing objection that apparent forgetting can be
skewed task-inference over latent capability rather than erasure (62); our irreversibility results
irreversible. On that last point I note the standing objection that apparent forgetting can be
skewed task-inference over latent capability rather than erasure (62); the irreversibility results here
concern oracle-measured behavioural distributions, and distinguishing latent from extinct capability
at language-model scale is an open experiment whose outcome would be decisive for both readings.
**What is borrowed and what is ours.** The collapse-as-drift diagnosis is established prior work
**What is borrowed and what is new.** The collapse-as-drift diagnosis is established prior work
(2125); so are the empirical facts that merges can beat parents, that decorrelated parents merge better, and that
naive averaging loses to interference-aware or routed merges (4, 63, 64), that model populations can
climb (5, 810), and that merge success admits ML-native predictors (44, 65), correlational where this framework
supplies mechanism; the reading of sex as an algorithm for mixability in the theory of computation
(66) anticipated the transfer before model merging existed. Ours is the framework-level
(66) anticipated the transfer before model merging existed. New here is the framework-level
synthesis — inheritance, diversity, and compatibility as managed quantities — together with: the
conservation law for blending inheritance and its operator boundaries; the per-item grounding floor;
the society ablation with its complementary failure modes; model speciation as a named, tested question, with the
coordinate-versus-functional decomposition under permutation-and-rescaling alignment and the emergent
null that bounds it; and the controlled predictive test with its controls. We claim the framework generated
these measurements and experiments; we do not claim their outcomes validate a uniquely
null that bounds it; and the controlled predictive test with its controls. I claim the framework generated
these measurements and experiments; I do not claim that their outcomes validate a uniquely
population-genetic mechanism, and one refinement it proposed was not supported.
**Limits and open problems.** The demonstrations are deliberately small: exact where small is a virtue,
@ -405,9 +405,9 @@ built at language-model scale. The predictive test's next bars, in order of valu
*unfamiliar* conflict structures and real task pairs; a demonstrably better *budget-matched* merging
decision; then scale replication. Beyond engineering, the framework's hardest open problem is the
fitness function itself: selection optimises what is measured, and for knowledge systems the
persuasive and the true compete — grounding against a reality that can refuse is the only anchor we
persuasive and the true compete — grounding against a reality that can refuse is the only anchor I
trust, and institutionalising that anchor (verification, replication, and challenge among models) is
the society-level problem we pose but do not solve. What biology receives in return is a new model
the society-level problem this paper poses but does not solve. What biology receives in return is a new model
system: populations of learners where every genotype, environment, and mating decision is observable
and manipulable — where the evolution of sex can be studied with interventions (unbounded parents,
offspring preview, directed mating) that no living system permits.
@ -418,11 +418,11 @@ development is consolidating around exactly the operators studied here: syntheti
(inheritance), merging and routing of specialist fine-tunes (recombination and population structure),
verifier-gated data pipelines (grounded selection), and periodic consolidation of adapters into new
bases. The framework's reading of that trajectory is concrete. If coming model generations remain what
our tested regimes found, freely recombinable in the absence of conflicting conventions, then the
the tested regimes found, freely recombinable in the absence of conflicting conventions, then the
ecosystem evolves as one interbreeding population, and the levers that matter are grounding budgets
priced per rare capability and diversity preserved deliberately. If instead long-horizon
specialisation at scale begins to produce emergent incompatibility, as the expert-training-duration
observations hint (43) and our small-scale null does not rule out, then lineages will begin to
observations hint (43) and the small-scale null here does not rule out, then lineages will begin to
speciate, and the ecosystem's future is a set of diverging species connected by routing rather than by
merging. Which of the two it will be is measurable now, with the pre-merge conflict instruments this
paper tested.