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second review round: tempered claims, robust statistics, corrected technical statements

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Analyses (figures/stats_llm_epistasis.py, committed + reproducible):
condition-clustered bootstrap CIs (functional measures exclude zero:
dis_raw [+0.04,+0.69], conf-weighted [+0.02,+0.68]; gradient alignment
[-0.59,-0.06]; geometry straddles zero), PAIRED predictor contrasts (not
individually significant — stated), leave-one-condition-out held-out
prediction (functional replicates, geometry ~0, performance baseline
unstable), three outcome references (ordering sensitive to reference —
reported, with the mechanism), between/within-axis decomposition
(within-conflict identification impossible by design; the compat axis
identifies), and seed-level paired reliability (routing/directed beat
soup 3/3 seeds incl. one catastrophic soup failure; CI-width fragility
claim withdrawn).

Renames and corrections: "decisive experiment" -> "controlled predictive
test"; "operational epistasis" -> "confidence-weighted functional
conflict (proposed proxy)"; "functional by construction" -> "controls a
major source of coordinate mismatch / conflict-associated" (module,
configs, READMEs, figures); SI proposition's "chord" defined precisely
(endpoint-loss interpolation, invariant) vs the path (not invariant) +
no-global-optimality caveat (removable = lower bound, residual = upper);
snowball count != performance cliff distinction added; claims table
gains four rows (grid finding / weighting NOT supported / functional-vs-
all-geometry not established / operator choice open); §1 ladder states
the prediction rung as a bounded small-model result.

paper/response-to-review-2.md: point-by-point, opening with the
bookkeeping correction (E13b/c were in the reviewed draft — revised
interpretation, not new results). READMEs rewritten around the four
analyses with the chronology (prospective/adaptive/post-hoc) disclosed.
151 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v
This commit is contained in:
Giorgio Gilestro 2026-09-06 17:55:46 +01:00
parent 1ae950cb7c
commit a40ace1821
17 changed files with 418 additions and 95 deletions
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9
figures/plot_llm_speciation.py
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@ -14,8 +14,9 @@ tracks its parents (conflict damage localised to the conflicted function) or fal
model's private-family accuracy stays above the best parent at every duration. The MLP tier's
"no emergent isolation" null generalises to LLM weights in this regime.
Because LoRA deltas share the frozen base's coordinates, none of this involves alignment ambiguity:
every failure shown is functional by construction.
The shared frozen base controls a major source of coordinate mismatch (LoRA deltas share its
coordinates), allowing a cleaner test of conflict-associated merging failure — though averaging can
still fail for non-conflict reasons (nonlinear interaction, scaling, capacity).
Usage: python figures/plot_llm_speciation.py
"""
@ -86,8 +87,8 @@ def main() -> None:
ax.legend(frameon=False, fontsize=8)
fig.suptitle("LLM-tier model speciation: conflict provokes function-specific hybrid breakdown; "
"no isolation emerges from duration alone (LoRA shares base coordinates — failures are "
"functional by construction)", y=1.03, fontsize=11.5)
"no isolation emerges from duration alone (shared base controls coordinate mismatch — "
"a cleaner test of conflict-associated failure)", y=1.03, fontsize=11.5)
fig.tight_layout()
savefig(fig, "results/llm_speciation", "llm_speciation")