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Manuscript revision and pending experiment work, snapshot before restructuring

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Clarity pass over the main text (36-item audit), Discussion rewrite and cut,
acknowledgements, Souly et al. as ref 62, lettered SI panels, model section
moved under Results; plus the untracked curriculum/society/compose/smol
configs, runners, figures, stats and tests that the SI already cites.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Y64o8FKP7rCuXzC48pxpMm
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Giorgio Gilestro 2026-09-13 16:54:09 +01:00
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results/llm_moe_hard_hpc/README.md
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@ -43,3 +43,34 @@ margin it does at 0.5B — E8's `max > mean` in real weights, robust across scal
saturation. The `llm_moe_hpc` flip is re-read as a saturation artefact. **Falsifier (not triggered):**
fusion matching/beating routing on hard tasks — instead fusion diluted below even the best specialist.
Provenance in `manifest.json` (`hard: true`, L40S, torch 2.12.1 / transformers 5.13.0 / peft 0.19.1).
## Seeds 1–3 (2026-09-11)
Seeds 2–3 were run on CX3 via `hpc/llm_7b_seeds.pbs` (seed 1 above was moved to `s1/`; the bundle
layout is now `s{seed}/`). Fixed test sets, training seed varied. Per-seed values and mean ± 95% CI
from `figures/stats_llm_7b_seeds.py`:
```
model metric n_seeds s1 s2 s3 mean ci95
best_specialist overall 3 0.425 0.407 0.390 0.407 0.020
best_specialist worst_family 3 0.155 0.150 0.185 0.163 0.021
merge_soup overall 3 0.392 0.405 0.428 0.408 0.021
merge_soup worst_family 3 0.300 0.345 0.340 0.328 0.028
merge_ties overall 3 0.400 0.427 0.438 0.422 0.022
merge_ties worst_family 3 0.330 0.385 0.380 0.365 0.034
moe_oracle overall 3 0.500 0.498 0.510 0.503 0.007
moe_oracle worst_family 3 0.335 0.360 0.455 0.383 0.072
moe_learned overall 3 0.500 0.498 0.510 0.503 0.007
moe_learned worst_family 3 0.335 0.360 0.455 0.383 0.072
max_merge overall 3 0.297 0.342 0.403 0.347 0.061
max_merge worst_family 3 0.195 0.175 0.240 0.203 0.038
contrast metric n_seeds s1 s2 s3 mean ci95 sign_agrees
moe_oracle − merge_soup overall 3 0.108 0.093 0.082 0.094 0.015 3/3
moe_oracle − merge_soup worst_family 3 0.035 0.015 0.115 0.055 0.060 3/3
moe_learned − merge_soup overall 3 0.108 0.093 0.082 0.094 0.015 3/3
moe_learned − merge_soup worst_family 3 0.035 0.015 0.115 0.055 0.060 3/3
merge_soup − best_specialist overall 3 -0.033 -0.002 0.038 0.001 0.041 1/3
merge_soup − best_specialist worst_family 3 0.145 0.195 0.155 0.165 0.030 3/3
```
Reading: routing beats the weight-average in every seed (+0.094 ± 0.015 overall). The seed-1 observation that the soup fell *below* the best single specialist did not replicate (soup − best specialist overall −0.033, −0.002, +0.038; mean +0.001): over three seeds the soup matches the best parent overall and beats it on worst-family (+0.165, 3/3). `max_merge` remains the weakest union (0.347).