Manuscript revision and pending experiment work, snapshot before restructuring

Clarity pass over the main text (36-item audit), Discussion rewrite and cut,
acknowledgements, Souly et al. as ref 62, lettered SI panels, model section
moved under Results; plus the untracked curriculum/society/compose/smol
configs, runners, figures, stats and tests that the SI already cites.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Y64o8FKP7rCuXzC48pxpMm

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/README.md

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+# Conflict-arrival curricula — does the decline (and the collapse) follow conflict, or generation?
+
+**Claim tested (manuscript revision 2026-09-12).** In the Latin-square population the fraction of
+merges a lineage declines rose with generation, and the obligate-merge arm collapsed from generation
+4. Three things rise together there: adapter age, skill count, and the arrival of the two families
+whose answer conventions conflict (`boolq` yes/no, `winogrande` 1/2). The decorrelated curriculum
+separated complementarity from generation but not conflict arrival. These two curricula move ONLY
+conflict arrival: **conflict-early** puts `boolq`/`winogrande` in generations 1–2 of every lineage;
+**conflict-late** puts them in generations 5–6; the four compatible families fill the rest in
+rotated orders. Age and skill count rise one family per generation in both (tested in
+`tests/test_llm_curriculum.py`). Pre-registered readings: declines and collapse at generations 2–3
+in early and 5–6 in late → conflict arrival drives them; the same rise/collapse schedule in both →
+age or skill count.
+
+**Setup.** As `curriculum_v5` (Qwen2.5-1.5B base, 3 lineages, 6 generations, 300 new + 150 replay
+examples, rank-16 LoRA, 60 test items per family). Configs: `curriculum_v5_{early,late}.yaml`
+(arms `isolated` + declinable `society`) and `curriculum_v5_{early,late}_obl.yaml` (obligate
+`society`). Seeds 1–3 via `hpc/llm_curriculum_timing.pbs` (L40S, 20–40 min per element). Bundles:
+`results/llm_curriculum_v5_{early,late,early_obl,late_obl}/s{seed}/`. Figure
+`curriculum_timing.png` (this directory); numbers below from `figures/stats_llm_curriculum.py`.
+
+### Result — generation, not conflict arrival
+- **Declines rise with generation in both curricula on the same schedule** (mean fraction declined,
+  generations 1→6; conflict present from generation 2 in early, 6 in late):
+  early 0.56, 0.33, 0.67, 0.67, 0.89, 0.78 · late 0.44, 0.67, 0.44, 0.56, 0.78, 0.89
+  (Latin 0.44 → 1.00; decorrelated 0.44 → 0.89).
+- **Conflict-timing test** (partial Spearman of declined on a conflict-present indicator,
+  controlling for generation; seed-clustered bootstrap): early + late pooled, n = 36:
+  ρ(conflict | generation) = **−0.09**, 95% CI (−0.45, 0.15); ρ(generation | conflict) = **+0.45**.
+  All four curricula pooled, n = 72: ρ(conflict | generation) = −0.04, CI (−0.30, 0.15);
+  ρ(generation | conflict) = +0.39. Complementarity, pooled over four curricula with generation
+  controlled: +0.05, CI (−0.08, 0.20).
+- **Obligate collapse also follows generation.** Best-lineage all-families accuracy of the obligate
+  arm, generations 1→6, mean of 3 seeds: early 0.63, 0.61, 0.72, 0.68, 0.50, 0.28 · late 0.75,
+  0.76, 0.71, 0.61, 0.57, 0.44 (Latin 0.68 … 0.27). Conflict-early dips when the pair arrives
+  (generation 2), recovers to the others' level by generation 3, and collapses from generation 5;
+  conflict-late collapses from generation 4 with its conflicting pair still to come, and ends
+  less deep. Final obligate − isolated: early −0.517 ± 0.050, late −0.395 ± 0.053 (3/3 seeds each).
+- **Declinable arms finish level with never merging in both curricula:** early 0.777 vs 0.796
+  (per seed −0.022, −0.039, +0.003), late 0.791 vs 0.781 (+0.019, +0.003, +0.006).
+
+**Reading.** With conflict arrival moved by four generations, neither the decline curve nor the
+collapse moved with it. What remains confounded is adapter age with skill count (both rise one per
+generation by construction). The recombination-modifier reading (declines track complementarity)
+stays unsupported; the "conflict arrival explains the collapse" reading is now also unsupported at
+the level of timing, though conflicting conventions still set the per-pair error floor
+(Proposition S2) and the early-arrival dip is visible. Falsifier for the generation reading (not
+triggered): declines or collapse shifting by ≥ 3 generations between the two curricula.

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s1/manifest.json

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+{
+  "experiment": "llm_curriculum_v5_early",
+  "master_seed": 1,
+  "git_commit": null,
+  "python": "3.11.7",
+  "libraries": {
+    "numpy": "2.4.6",
+    "scipy": "1.17.1",
+    "pandas": "3.0.3",
+    "pyarrow": "24.0.0",
+    "torch": "2.12.1",
+    "transformers": "5.16.1",
+    "peft": "0.20.0"
+  },
+  "rows": 439,
+  "results_sha256": "acbf0fd695b12a33c352a5aed5ef719476c0638002eeb3e190914b5e239bc820",
+  "layer": "2",
+  "tier": "llm",
+  "base_model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B",
+  "hard": false,
+  "curriculum": {
+    "families": [
+      "mnli",
+      "arc",
+      "hellaswag",
+      "squad",
+      "boolq",
+      "winogrande"
+    ],
+    "lineages": 3,
+    "generations": 6,
+    "arms": [
+      "isolated",
+      "society"
+    ],
+    "baselines": [],
+    "n_new": 300,
+    "n_replay": 150,
+    "operator": "linear",
+    "ancestor_depth": null,
+    "lora": {
+      "r": 16,
+      "alpha": 32
+    },
+    "allow_veto": true,
+    "merge_until": null,
+    "orders": [
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad"
+      ],
+      [
+        "winogrande",
+        "boolq",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli"
+      ],
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc"
+      ]
+    ],
+    "cull": null
+  }
+}

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s1/resolved_config.yaml

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+experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+seed: 1
+n_replicates: 1
+source_config:
+  experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+  kind: llm_curriculum
+  base_model: Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B
+  seed: 1
+  families:
+  - mnli
+  - arc
+  - hellaswag
+  - squad
+  - boolq
+  - winogrande
+  lineages: 3
+  generations: 6
+  arms:
+  - isolated
+  - society
+  baselines: []
+  allow_veto: true
+  n_new: 300
+  n_replay: 150
+  n_test: 60
+  n_val: 20
+  epochs: 3
+  lr: 0.0001
+  operator: linear
+  merge_weights:
+  - - 0.5
+    - 0.5
+  - - 0.3
+    - 0.7
+  - - 0.7
+    - 0.3
+  max_new_tokens: 48
+  batch_size: 48
+  train_batch_size: 4
+  train_max_len: 512
+  lora:
+    r: 16
+    alpha: 32
+  output:
+    dir: results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s1
+  orders:
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+  - - winogrande
+    - boolq
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+  n_replicates: 1

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s2/manifest.json

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+{
+  "experiment": "llm_curriculum_v5_early",
+  "master_seed": 2,
+  "git_commit": null,
+  "python": "3.11.7",
+  "libraries": {
+    "numpy": "2.4.6",
+    "scipy": "1.17.1",
+    "pandas": "3.0.3",
+    "pyarrow": "24.0.0",
+    "torch": "2.12.1",
+    "transformers": "5.16.1",
+    "peft": "0.20.0"
+  },
+  "rows": 439,
+  "results_sha256": "dd5697baee62e082eeb8b90321cd030317d0af91664a79c094b68f845f577cc2",
+  "layer": "2",
+  "tier": "llm",
+  "base_model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B",
+  "hard": false,
+  "curriculum": {
+    "families": [
+      "mnli",
+      "arc",
+      "hellaswag",
+      "squad",
+      "boolq",
+      "winogrande"
+    ],
+    "lineages": 3,
+    "generations": 6,
+    "arms": [
+      "isolated",
+      "society"
+    ],
+    "baselines": [],
+    "n_new": 300,
+    "n_replay": 150,
+    "operator": "linear",
+    "ancestor_depth": null,
+    "lora": {
+      "r": 16,
+      "alpha": 32
+    },
+    "allow_veto": true,
+    "merge_until": null,
+    "orders": [
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad"
+      ],
+      [
+        "winogrande",
+        "boolq",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli"
+      ],
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc"
+      ]
+    ],
+    "cull": null
+  }
+}

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s2/resolved_config.yaml

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+experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+seed: 2
+n_replicates: 1
+source_config:
+  experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+  kind: llm_curriculum
+  base_model: Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B
+  seed: 2
+  families:
+  - mnli
+  - arc
+  - hellaswag
+  - squad
+  - boolq
+  - winogrande
+  lineages: 3
+  generations: 6
+  arms:
+  - isolated
+  - society
+  baselines: []
+  allow_veto: true
+  n_new: 300
+  n_replay: 150
+  n_test: 60
+  n_val: 20
+  epochs: 3
+  lr: 0.0001
+  operator: linear
+  merge_weights:
+  - - 0.5
+    - 0.5
+  - - 0.3
+    - 0.7
+  - - 0.7
+    - 0.3
+  max_new_tokens: 48
+  batch_size: 48
+  train_batch_size: 4
+  train_max_len: 512
+  lora:
+    r: 16
+    alpha: 32
+  output:
+    dir: results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s2
+  orders:
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+  - - winogrande
+    - boolq
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+  n_replicates: 1

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s3/manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+{
+  "experiment": "llm_curriculum_v5_early",
+  "master_seed": 3,
+  "git_commit": null,
+  "python": "3.11.7",
+  "libraries": {
+    "numpy": "2.4.6",
+    "scipy": "1.17.1",
+    "pandas": "3.0.3",
+    "pyarrow": "24.0.0",
+    "torch": "2.12.1",
+    "transformers": "5.16.1",
+    "peft": "0.20.0"
+  },
+  "rows": 439,
+  "results_sha256": "3d69712e820af51ae2263b9d20d62a9c5e0d0a34d06d678b48e1116f4b740ac3",
+  "layer": "2",
+  "tier": "llm",
+  "base_model": "Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B",
+  "hard": false,
+  "curriculum": {
+    "families": [
+      "mnli",
+      "arc",
+      "hellaswag",
+      "squad",
+      "boolq",
+      "winogrande"
+    ],
+    "lineages": 3,
+    "generations": 6,
+    "arms": [
+      "isolated",
+      "society"
+    ],
+    "baselines": [],
+    "n_new": 300,
+    "n_replay": 150,
+    "operator": "linear",
+    "ancestor_depth": null,
+    "lora": {
+      "r": 16,
+      "alpha": 32
+    },
+    "allow_veto": true,
+    "merge_until": null,
+    "orders": [
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad"
+      ],
+      [
+        "winogrande",
+        "boolq",
+        "arc",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli"
+      ],
+      [
+        "boolq",
+        "winogrande",
+        "hellaswag",
+        "squad",
+        "mnli",
+        "arc"
+      ]
+    ],
+    "cull": null
+  }
+}

results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s3/resolved_config.yaml

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+experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+seed: 3
+n_replicates: 1
+source_config:
+  experiment: llm_curriculum_v5_early
+  kind: llm_curriculum
+  base_model: Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B
+  seed: 3
+  families:
+  - mnli
+  - arc
+  - hellaswag
+  - squad
+  - boolq
+  - winogrande
+  lineages: 3
+  generations: 6
+  arms:
+  - isolated
+  - society
+  baselines: []
+  allow_veto: true
+  n_new: 300
+  n_replay: 150
+  n_test: 60
+  n_val: 20
+  epochs: 3
+  lr: 0.0001
+  operator: linear
+  merge_weights:
+  - - 0.5
+    - 0.5
+  - - 0.3
+    - 0.7
+  - - 0.7
+    - 0.3
+  max_new_tokens: 48
+  batch_size: 48
+  train_batch_size: 4
+  train_max_len: 512
+  lora:
+    r: 16
+    alpha: 32
+  output:
+    dir: results/llm_curriculum_v5_early/s3
+  orders:
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+  - - winogrande
+    - boolq
+    - arc
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+  - - boolq
+    - winogrande
+    - hellaswag
+    - squad
+    - mnli
+    - arc
+  n_replicates: 1