Phase 3: LLM-tier speciation + multi-seed firm-up of the recombination claims

llm_speciation (new kind; src/llm/speciation.py): E13 in LLM weights.
LoRA children share the frozen base's coordinates, so merge failure is
functional by construction. CONFLICT (ambiguous sort prompts learned
under opposite conventions — the BDM structure): function-specific
hybrid breakdown — merged coherence 0.02-0.08 falls below BOTH parents
(~0.2) on the conflicted function; and in the de-confounded `add` design
(private budget fixed, conflict added on top; 3 seeds after a
single-seed pilot showed one anomalous point) the merge's private-family
accuracy shows NO trend with conflict — the damage is surgical, not
global. DURATION (over-trained disjoint specialists, 1->12 epochs): the
merge improves (0.84->0.94) and stays above the best parent — the MLP
"no emergent isolation" null generalises; relevant to the
expert-training-duration report (2607.11997), with the epistasis
prediction left to the decisive experiment.

Multi-seed firm-up (seeds threaded into specialist caches; `seeds:` list
support in the runner; fixed test sets): all three recombination claims
hold with CIs — merges beat every specialist (5 seeds, ties
0.647±0.027 > best spec 0.592±0.009; worst-family 0.28 vs <=0.16); union
0.274±0.026 > fusion 0.174±0.102 on hard (3 seeds); directed 0.221±0.026
> soup. NEW finding: fusion is seed-FRAGILE where headroom exists
(CI ±0.10) while routing/directed selection are stable (±0.026) — the
union/selection operators win on reliability, not just mean.

Figures (llm_speciation 3-panel; llm_seeds 3-panel with 95% CI), READMEs,
+1 convention test (150 green), make llm-speciation / llm-seeds targets.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v

Makefile

@@ -36,6 +36,15 @@ llm:               ## run the LLM prototypes: merge (fusion) + moe (union) + dir
 	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/moe.yaml
 	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/directed.yaml
 
+llm-speciation:    ## LLM-tier speciation: conflict cliff (replace + de-confounded add) and duration null
+	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/speciation.yaml
+	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/speciation_add.yaml
+
+llm-seeds:         ## multi-seed firm-up (heavy): merge x5, moe-hard x3, directed-hard x3
+	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/merge_seeds.yaml
+	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/moe_hard_seeds.yaml
+	uv run python -m llm.experiment configs/llm/directed_hard_seeds.yaml
+
 layer2: neural     ## alias: Layer 1.5 is the current Layer-2 deliverable (LLM rung deferred)
 
 figures:           ## regenerate figures from committed results