paper: claim-narrowing revision from the external review
The review's core instruments adopted: the interpretation/explanation/ prediction ladder is now explicit in §1 (with the decisive pre-merge epistasis-prediction test stated as the open bar, not claimed); identity claims scoped (WF exact only in the minimal model, with the learning-kernel deviation cited against ourselves; Muller's ratchet scoped to the irreversible arm — recombination reassembles only what survives); "nobody has / none imports / theory outrun" removed; merge-don't-average given explicit operator boundaries (output-mean vs weight-average vs routing vs max-with-oracle; budgets; oracle; capacity handoff to speciation); a "what these experiments do and do not establish" scope block added to the speciation section (conflict floor is information-theoretic, not genetic; epistasis-cliff + snowball = hypotheses at the neural tier; emergent DMIs = flagship hypothesis, bounded by our null); "control theory" -> "framework" (subtitle included); §3/§11 overstatements fixed (frozen core != frozen behaviour; Baldwin echo, not identity; operational vs archival irreversibility); claims-at-a-glance table (status/assumptions/evidence/limits) added to §13. Reviewer's framing sentence adopted as the stated core contribution. Accessible version calibrated to match. md2tex gains pipe- table support; PDF rebuilds clean (22 pp). Lessons recorded. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v
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# The Evolution of Sex for Artificial Intelligence
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### A population-genetic control theory for societies of agents that reproduce, recombine, and stay open-ended
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### A population-genetic framework for societies of agents that reproduce, recombine, and stay open-ended
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*A perspective, written from a geneticist's chair. Companion to a set of minimal, reproducible working
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models and a first language-model prototype (both built).*
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@ -28,13 +28,15 @@ you skipped a definition:
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- **Genetic drift** *(population genetics)* — the random loss of rare variants that happens in any
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finite population simply because not everyone leaves offspring. It is the neutral, no-selection
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baseline of evolution.
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- **Wright–Fisher process** *(population genetics)* — the standard mathematical model of drift. We
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will claim, and show, that generational model-training *is* this process, not merely like it.
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- **Wright–Fisher process** *(population genetics)* — the standard mathematical model of drift. Our
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minimal model of knowledge transmission *is* this process exactly; a real trained network is this
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process plus a measurable, architecture-specific bias we quantify.
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- **Recombination / sexual reproduction** *(biology)* — making an offspring by combining pieces from
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more than one parent, rather than copying a single parent (which is *asexual* reproduction).
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- **Muller's ratchet** *(population genetics)* — the way an asexual lineage, one that never
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recombines, accumulates damage it can never undo. It is, we will argue, the same thing as model
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collapse.
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recombines, accumulates damage it can never undo. We will argue it is the right lens for the
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*irreversible* part of model collapse — the capabilities that, once lost from every parent, no
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merging can rebuild.
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- **Catastrophic forgetting** *(machine learning / neuroscience)* — a neural network overwriting what
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it knew when it learns something new.
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@ -53,27 +55,35 @@ AI is turning from single frozen models to **populations of agents** that persis
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increasingly *recombined* into new models — a shift visible in multi-agent societies, population-based
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self-improvement, and the explosion of **model merging**. The field is doing this with the vocabulary
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of evolution — "crossover," "mutation," "mate choice," "offspring that beat their parents" — but as
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loose metaphor draped over search algorithms. This paper argues that the right theory is already
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written, in the branch of biology that studies exactly this: the **evolution of sex**. Ninety years of
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population genetics say precisely when reproducing a population by *recombination* beats copying, when
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it backfires, and how to do it better — and, read as a control theory, it tells an engineer how to keep
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a society of models learning across generations instead of decaying.
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loose metaphor draped over search algorithms. This paper argues that a rich, quantitative body of
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applicable theory already exists in the branch of biology that studies exactly this: the **evolution
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of sex**. Ninety years of population genetics analyse when reproducing a population by *recombination*
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beats copying, when it backfires, and how to do it better — and, read as an engineering framework, it
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supplies overlooked variables and testable design rules for keeping a society of models learning
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across generations instead of decaying. The underlying shift of perspective is the contribution we
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most want to land: **treat multigenerational model populations as systems whose inheritance,
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diversity, and compatibility must be managed — not merely as collections of models to optimise.**
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We take one diagnosis as settled and cite it as such: training each generation on the last is
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**genetic drift**, and the resulting **model collapse** is the loss of rare variants a finite
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population always suffers (the Wright–Fisher process; formalised for language models by Shumailov et
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al., 2024, and Riis, 2026). We claim none of that. Our contribution is the other half — the **cure**,
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and its assembly into a theory with predictions. Single-teacher copying is **asexual** reproduction,
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and asexual lineages decay by **Muller's ratchet**, which *is* model collapse; the remedy nature found
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is **sex**. A society of models should reproduce sexually — each new model **recombined from several
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complementary parents** (which the field already does, as *model merging*), selection **anchored to a
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reality that can say no** (not to the consensus of other models), and diversity actively **preserved**.
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With those three ingredients a lineage does not merely avoid collapse; it **climbs** — producing models
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fitter than any ancestor (the **Fisher–Muller effect**) while each specialty is re-earned and exceeded.
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al., 2024, and Riis, 2026). We claim none of that. Our contribution is on the remedy side. Single-
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teacher copying is **asexual** reproduction, and the irreversible arm of its decay corresponds to
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**Muller's ratchet** (a correspondence we state with its scope, not as identity); the remedy biology
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found for the ratchet is **sex**. A society of models should reproduce sexually — each new model
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**recombined from several complementary parents** (which the field already does, as *model merging*),
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selection **anchored to a reality that can say no** (not to the consensus of other models), and
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diversity actively **preserved**. In our models — from closed-form to trained networks to a
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language-model prototype — those three ingredients together let a lineage not merely avoid collapse
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but **climb**, producing models fitter than any ancestor (the **Fisher–Muller effect**) while each
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specialty is re-earned and exceeded; whether the full recipe holds at frontier scale is the open
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question the framework is built to test.
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From the geneticist's apparatus we extract falsifiable, load-bearing claims the merging literature has
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not: (i) **"merge, don't average"** — recombination preserves the union of what parents kept, while
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averaging (a "model soup") is *blending inheritance* that mathematically cancels the benefit; (ii)
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From the geneticist's apparatus we extract falsifiable, load-bearing claims (each stated with its
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operator and scope in the text): (i) **"merge, don't average"** — a conservation result: refitting a
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child to the *mean of its parents' output distributions* conserves rare-capability mass at the
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single-parent level, so adding parents cannot help, while union-preserving operators realise the gain
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— exact in the minimal model, with its weight-space image verified as the headroom rule below; (ii)
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**offspring can exceed every parent** (Fisher–Muller), the real argument for sex in model societies;
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(iii) on **rugged, epistatic** task landscapes, blind recombination causes **outbreeding depression**,
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yielding a design rule — *merge freely when skills are additive, sparingly and with selection when
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@ -143,18 +153,24 @@ mixture-of-experts routing): all established. Third, that merge success can be *
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machine-learning-native predictors exist, from interpretable pairwise metrics (gradient alignment —
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Zhou et al., 2026) to capacity/rate-distortion accounts of "merging collapse" (2026); what they lack,
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and we supply, is the *mechanism* — when and why the failure is a coordinate artefact versus genuine
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functional incompatibility, and what moves the cliff. What is genuinely unoccupied — and what a
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geneticist is placed to supply — is a **theory** rather than a search heuristic. The nearest precursor
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is a theory-of-computation tradition reading sex as an algorithm for *mixability* (Livnat &
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Papadimitriou, 2016), pre-dating model merging and never applied to it. Every one of the works above
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uses evolution as *metaphor over an optimiser*; none imports the predictive apparatus of the evolution
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of sex. Nobody has stated the **"merge, don't average" conservation law**, derived **offspring-exceed-parents
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as Fisher–Muller**, predicted **outbreeding depression on rugged task landscapes**, framed **grounding
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as migration–drift balance** with a critical fraction, or connected **reproductive isolation** to when
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two models can be merged at all. An evolutionary algorithm that *finds* a super-parent is evidence for
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the theory, not a substitute for it — the way CMA-ES existing does not make fitness-landscape theory
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redundant. This paper supplies the theory the tinkering has outrun, and states what it predicts and
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where it would fail.
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functional incompatibility, and what moves the cliff. What a geneticist is placed to supply is a
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**framework** rather than a search heuristic. The nearest precursor is a theory-of-computation
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tradition reading sex as an algorithm for *mixability* (Livnat & Papadimitriou, 2016), pre-dating
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model merging; the works above use evolution chiefly as vocabulary over an optimiser, and — to our
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knowledge — the quantitative apparatus of the evolution of sex (Fisher–Muller, outbreeding depression,
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migration–drift balance, reproductive isolation) has not previously been carried over as more than
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metaphor. We are also candid about what *kind* of contribution each of our claims is, because three
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different things are easily conflated: **interpretation** (an existing result is usefully understood
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in these terms — e.g., merged offspring beating their parents as Fisher–Muller), **explanation** (the
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transferred mechanism accounts for observations existing accounts leave open — e.g., which merge
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failures are coordinate artefacts and which are functional), and **prediction** (the framework
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forecasts an unmeasured outcome and improves a design decision — e.g., an epistasis measure taken
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*before* merging that beats geometry-based predictors of merge success). This paper is strongest on
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the first, makes concrete progress on the second, and states the third as its open, decisive test —
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proposed here with pre-registered falsifiers, not claimed as done. The organising shift we argue for
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is prior to any single mechanism: **treat multigenerational model populations as systems whose
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inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed — not merely as collections of models to
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optimise.**
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## 2. Why today's models cannot do this
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@ -177,9 +193,11 @@ The individual model needs two properties.
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core frozen and only *readable*, and carves each new skill into freshly-added capacity beside it. In
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machine learning this is called *parameter isolation* (progressive networks — Rusu et al., 2016;
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prune-and-freeze — Mallya & Lazebnik, 2018; and, most practically, **LoRA** and other small trainable
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"patches" bolted onto a frozen model — Hu et al., 2021). If the core is never altered, forgetting it
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is not merely unlikely but structurally impossible. This is what lets a model accumulate a coherent
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working life of expertise — the kind of stable knowledge worth passing on.
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"patches" bolted onto a frozen model — Hu et al., 2021). If the core is never altered, its *parameters*
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cannot be forgotten — though a precise reader should note the system's *behaviour* can still shift
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while adapters are active, so the guarantee is of a recoverable core, not of unchanging conduct. This
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is what lets a model accumulate a coherent working life of expertise — the kind of stable knowledge
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worth passing on.
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The brain offers a partial blueprint. *Complementary Learning Systems* theory (McClelland,
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McNaughton & O'Reilly, 1995) — itself a response to the forgetting problem — describes two subsystems:
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@ -221,20 +239,33 @@ distribution (the rare cases) first, and drifts toward its own most common outpu
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idiosyncratic* — **is** tail-deletion by design. The operation that would power a cultural ratchet and
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the operation that drives model collapse are the same act.
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**The population-genetics statement (the same thing).** Represent a model's knowledge as a
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distribution over discrete "items" — capabilities, facts, modes of behaviour. One generation is:
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*draw a finite sample from the parent, and refit the child to it.* That finite-sampling step is
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**mathematically identical** to **genetic drift** — the random loss of rare variants in a finite
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population — described by the century-old **Wright–Fisher** model (Wright, 1931; Fisher, 1930). This is
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not an analogy we find pretty; it is the same equations, and we use them as an exact check on our
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simulations (the first of the minimal models below). Rare items go extinct first, roughly ten times
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faster than common ones, precisely as drift predicts.
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**The population-genetics statement (the same thing, for the minimal model).** Represent a model's
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knowledge as a distribution over discrete "items" — capabilities, facts, modes of behaviour. One
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generation is: *draw a finite sample from the parent, and refit the child to it.* In this **minimal
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inheritance model** the finite-sampling step is **exactly** genetic drift — the random loss of rare
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variants in a finite population — described by the century-old **Wright–Fisher** model (Wright, 1931;
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Fisher, 1930): the same equations, which we use as closed-form checks on our simulations. Rare items
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go extinct first, roughly ten times faster than common ones, precisely as drift predicts. **The
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boundary of the identity matters, and we measured it:** real neural training adds approximation,
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optimisation noise, and inductive bias on top of sampling, and when we fit trained networks against
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the exact drift null they deviate in *opposite, architecture-specific directions* — a smoothing
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recurrent model resists collapse (it keeps spurious variants alive), a sharpening image generator
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accelerates it (our learning-kernel result, below). So the honest statement is: the minimal
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inheritance model is exactly Wright–Fisher; a real learner is Wright–Fisher *plus a signed,
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measurable estimator-bias operator* — and the drift signs (rare-first loss, the grounding response)
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survive that operator in every architecture we tested.
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And single-teacher copying is **asexual reproduction** — cloning one parent. Nature already knows what
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happens to an asexual lineage that never recombines: it accumulates damage it can never repair, a
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one-way decline geneticists call **Muller's ratchet** (Muller, 1964). *Muller's ratchet is model
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collapse.* Naming it that way is not decoration; it tells us where the cure is, because biology solved
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this problem.
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one-way decline geneticists call **Muller's ratchet** (Muller, 1964). We use the ratchet as the
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*organising correspondence* for model collapse, with its scope stated: strictly, the ratchet is the
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stochastic loss of the least-degraded class under recurring deleterious change in an asexual
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population, so it maps onto the *irreversible* component of capability loss (once every copy of a rare
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capability is gone from all parents and sources, no recombination can rebuild it) rather than onto
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every form of degradation. That is exactly why the correspondence is useful rather than decorative: it
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says the cure must act *before* fixation-by-loss — keep complementary variants alive somewhere in the
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population — because recombination can only reassemble what still survives. Biology solved this
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problem, and its solution is the subject of this paper.
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Two ingredients turn the collapse operation into a climb. Both are things nature does.
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@ -282,6 +313,23 @@ beats the average in exact proportion to how far the average is from the best at
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that sharpens rather than weakens the claim, and that a practitioner needs before spending compute on
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the fancier operator.
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**The operator boundaries (stated, because "merge, don't average" is not one claim but a family).**
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Four different operators travel under these words, and the conservation result belongs to exactly one
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of them. What is *derived* is this: when a pupil's knowledge is refit to the **mean of the parents'
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output distributions**, the expected mass on any rare item is conserved at the single-parent level —
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in the rare-item regime the 1/K dilution of averaging exactly cancels the union gain of having K
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parents — so adding parents cannot help; whereas an operator that keeps, per item, its **strongest
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source** realises the union. That statement is exact in the minimal model, and it presupposes an
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oracle (or verifier) able to say which source is strongest. The two operators the LLM prototype
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tests — **weight averaging** (a nonlinear network's weight-mean does not compute the mean of its
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parents' outputs) and **routing among intact specialists** (which keeps K models' storage and an input
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classifier, a different parameter and inference budget from one fixed-size child) — are *empirical
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cousins* of the two sides of that law, not instances of it. The headroom rule above is precisely the
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empirical bridge: it says when the weight-average behaves like the diluting mean (hard tasks, weak
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base) and when a capable base absorbs the dilution (easy tasks). And all of it operates within a
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capacity boundary: when parental capabilities genuinely cannot coexist in the child's capacity, no
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operator preserves the union — that regime is the subject of the speciation section below.
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Three results keep this honest, and all are results, not hand-waving.
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*Sex can backfire.* When the parents' skills are not cleanly separable but **entangled** — when the
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@ -413,6 +461,26 @@ longer merge worse under averaging) — is exactly the next tier's question, and
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prediction crisp: it should depend on whether extended training induces *conflicting conventions on
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shared circuitry*, not on divergence time itself.
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**What these experiments do and do not establish.** Stated at exactly the strength of the evidence:
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they establish that *some merge failures reflect incompatible functional requirements rather than a
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mismatch of coordinates* — a residual that survives the full unit-symmetry group of the architecture
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tested, rises with functional conflict, and is absent under compatible specialisation. Three
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qualifiers. First, the impossibility at the heart of the conflict condition — one deterministic model
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cannot satisfy two contradictory answer conventions — is information-theoretic and needs no population
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genetics; what the genetic frame adds is *structure around it*: which divergences generate such
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conflicts, the prediction that epistasis rather than distance sets the cliff's position, and the
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snowball's super-linear onset — the latter two verified so far only in the analytic model, and
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therefore carried as **hypotheses at the neural tier, not results**. Second, our alignment removes the
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symmetries we enumerate for this architecture class; richer transformation families for other
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architectures could reapportion removable vs residual, though not below the conflict floor. Third,
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"unmergeable" here means by aligned linear interpolation of weights — a barrier to that operator does
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not preclude every conceivable recombination method (routing, for one, sidesteps it by not blending).
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Emergent Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities in real weights remain the flagship *hypothesis* of this
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programme: our tested regimes found none, which bounds where they can live — longer horizons, shifted
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data distributions, capacity pressure — and the decisive experiment (predicting merge success *before*
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merging from an operational epistasis measure, against geometry- and gradient-based predictors) is
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posed in the closing section.
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One question remains, and the rest of the paper is largely about it: recombination combines what the
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parents kept — but *who decides what each parent keeps, and which offspring are worth keeping?*
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@ -571,25 +639,29 @@ across enough generations, **re-mint the base**: distil the accumulated soft inh
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generations to acquire in patches. The soft budget resets; the next epoch begins from a richer floor.
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What was hard-won and *learned* becomes cheap and *innate*.
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This has a precise name, and it is not Lamarck's. Knowledge that is acquired and re-learned every
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generation, and — once reliably present for long enough — becomes part of the innate endowment so that
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it need no longer be re-learned, is the **Baldwin effect** (Baldwin, 1896; and its clean computational
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demonstration, Hinton & Nowlan, 1987). It is the valve between the two substrates: the soft, learned
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patches, and the hard base weights every model is born with.
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The pattern **echoes the Baldwin effect** (Baldwin, 1896; its clean computational demonstration is
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Hinton & Nowlan, 1987): knowledge acquired and re-learned every generation eventually becoming part of
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the innate endowment. We use the echo advisedly — Baldwin's mechanism is *selection* favouring
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genotypes that learn the trait ever more easily, whereas re-minting is direct distillation, a
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deliberate engineering shortcut through the same soft-to-innate valve. The valve is the point: two
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substrates, the soft learned patches and the hard base weights every model is born with, with a
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controlled passage between them.
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Three honest riders, because re-minting is the most consequential step in the scheme:
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- **Cost.** This is the one step that re-pays part of the pre-training bill, breaking §10's cheapness
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*locally*. It is bearable only because it is *rare*, amortised over many cheap generations, and is
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continued training from the lineage's own rich outputs rather than a de-novo run.
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- **Irreversibility.** Until now, one thing was always recoverable — the original pristine base, whose
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lost tails could be restored just by reloading the file. Bake the current lineage into new immutable
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weights and that escape hatch closes: if the lineage had been quietly collapsing, re-minting *fixes
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the collapse in place* and discards the one uncollapsed reference that could have diagnosed it. In our
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minimal models this is exactly what happens, and a cheap safeguard prevents it: **re-mint only while
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the lineage is demonstrably diverse and healthy**, never as a rescue for a line already drifting. It
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is the sharpest instance of the human seat of §9 — choosing what no future generation will think to
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question.
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- **Irreversibility (of the lineage, not the archive).** A digital system can, of course, keep every
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old base on disk — nothing forces deletion, and archives should be kept. The irreversibility is
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*operational*: once the lineage's production base, training mixtures, and selection all run downstream
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of the re-minted weights, a quiet collapse baked into them propagates to every descendant, and the
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archived ancestor helps only if some process still compares against it — which nothing in the loop
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does by default. In our minimal models a collapsed-then-re-minted lineage locks in its loss exactly
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this way, and a cheap safeguard prevents it: **re-mint only while the lineage is demonstrably diverse
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and healthy** (and keep an audit that diffs against the archived ancestor), never as a rescue for a
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line already drifting. It is the sharpest instance of the human seat of §9 — choosing what no future
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generation will think to question.
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- **Speciation.** A re-minting is a founder event. Different laboratories, re-basing on different
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criteria, will mint divergent bases; the lineage branches. This is not a defect but *adaptive
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radiation*, and it is exactly what open weights make possible. The society grows not as one heavy
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@ -678,6 +750,26 @@ shape.)
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differently; only the whole system climbs. This is the closest thing we have to a test of the actual
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thesis, rather than of the borrowed scaffolding around it.
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### The claims at a glance: status, assumptions, evidence, limits
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Because a perspective of this breadth risks blurring what is proved, what is measured, and what is
|
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proposed, here is the ledger of the load-bearing claims — each labelled **exact** (closed-form in the
|
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minimal model), **empirical** (measured in trained systems), or **hypothesis** (stated with a
|
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falsifier, not yet established):
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| Claim | Status | Key assumptions | Evidence | Known limits |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Collapse = Wright–Fisher drift (minimal model) | Exact (diagnosis conceded to prior work) | Knowledge = categorical distribution; refit = resample | Closed forms reproduced to <0.5% | Real learners add a signed, architecture-specific estimator bias (measured) |
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| Grounding = immigration; critical real-data fraction ≪ 1 | Exact + empirical sign | Fresh samples from a fixed, non-drifting truth | Exact `H_eq`; `g*≈0.048`; sign holds in RNN/MLP/VAE and on MNIST | Deepest tail unrescuable at feasible budgets (`m ∼ 1/p`); sharp threshold softens in trained nets |
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| "Merge, don't average" conservation | Exact **for the output-mean operator** | Rare-item regime; an oracle/verifier identifies the strongest source | E4 closed form + simulation; neural reproduction | Weight-averaging and routing are empirical cousins, not instances; budgets differ; bridge = the headroom rule |
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| Offspring exceed every parent (Fisher–Muller) | Interpretation + empirical | Complementary (decorrelated) parents; verifiable fitness | E8 analytic; 7B LoRA merge beats every specialist on every family | LLM tier: 3 lexically-distinct families; multi-seed replication in progress |
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| Outbreeding depression on rugged landscapes; operator design rule | Exact-model result; hypothesis at LLM scale | NK epistasis stands in for skill entanglement | E9–E10; directed selection rescues | Not yet mapped onto a real task-entanglement measure |
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| Optimal mate-pool breadth shrinks with ruggedness | Exact-model result; hypothesis for merging populations | Ring population, local selection | E14 | Phenomenon known to island-model evolutionary computation; our contribution is the mapping and the diversity/mean decomposition |
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| Merge failure decomposes into coordinate artefact + functional residual | Empirical (MLP tier; LLM tier in progress) | Alignment enumerates the architecture's unit symmetries | Full-symmetry residual ≈ 0 (compatible) vs ≈ naive (conflict); cliff in hybrid fitness | Scoped to aligned linear interpolation; conflict floor is information-theoretic, not genetic |
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| Epistasis (not divergence) sets the cliff; snowball onset | Exact-model result; **hypothesis** at the neural tier | BDM incompatibility structure | E12 | The decisive pre-merge prediction test is proposed, not run |
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| Emergent speciation without conflict | **Not observed** (pre-registered) | Shared ancestry, compatible tasks, tested divergences | E13b: residual 0.000; merge rescues specialists | Bounds the hypothesis; longer horizons/distribution shift/capacity pressure untested |
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| Grounding + sex + diversity jointly necessary | Exact-model result; hypothesis at LLM scale | Conformity stands in for self-consumption | E11 four-arm ablation, each arm failing distinctly | The full grounded LLM society is unbuilt |
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**What is borrowed, and what is ours.** We are deliberate about the ledger, because the surrounding
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literature is crowded and a reader deserves to know exactly where the line falls. **Conceded as prior
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art:** (a) *model collapse is genetic drift* — derived independently and cleanly (Riis, 2026; the
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@ -692,8 +784,8 @@ capacity/rate-distortion accounts of merging collapse (Cao et al., 2026), and st
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analyses of multi-task degradation; and (e) that verifier-screened synthetic data can avert collapse
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(Yi et al., 2025) — the statistical cousin of our grounding operator. We claim none of these.
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**Ours** is the theory those results have outrun: a **population-genetics of sex** applied to model
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societies, which is *generative* where the incumbents are empirical. Concretely — the **"merge, don't
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**Ours** is the framework those results invite: a **population-genetics of sex** applied to model
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societies, generative where the incumbents are empirical. Concretely — the **"merge, don't
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average" conservation law** (recombination preserves the union; blending inheritance cancels it),
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derived not observed; **Fisher–Muller** named and used to explain *why* offspring exceed parents;
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**outbreeding depression on rugged/epistatic landscapes**, which turns "when does merging help vs hurt"
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