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PNAS hard limits now met: title 120/135 chars; Significance rewritten to 117/120 words (plain register, carries the CL frame); Abstract rewritten to 241/250. Style pass over the whole manuscript per GG: em-dashes cut 94 -> 20 in the body (appositives to commas/parentheses, trailing clauses to colons/semicolons), tic phrases removed (quietly/sprawling/ no-longer-metaphorical/pays-for-itself/deserves-its/whatever-one-thinks/ celebrated/we-think and kin), rhetorical framings flattened to plain statements. Main text 4,809 words + 456 table words + 65 refs; estimated ~10 PNAS pages with the six composed figures (within the 12-page hard max; above the 6-page preference — trim options noted in work order). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BkRLcc18rwT2Lysu6PbG7v
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## Significance statement
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Artificial intelligence is shifting from single, frozen models to populations of models that
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specialise, are retrained on each other's output, and are combined ("merged") into new models. Trained
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on their own output, model lineages degenerate — a process already recognised as the mathematics of
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genetic drift. This paper imports the other half of population genetics: the biology of sexual
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reproduction. It treats model merging as recombination, real data as immigration, and merge failure as
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reproductive isolation, and tests each correspondence in simulations, small neural networks, and
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language models. The framework recasts machine learning's oldest problem — continual learning without
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forgetting — at the population scale, and yields design rules: when to average models, when to keep
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them separate, how much real data suffices (a theory for the field's empirical replay fractions), and
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a controlled small-model test in which pre-merge functional disagreement predicted merge damage,
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motivating further comparison with weight-space measures.
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Artificial intelligence increasingly consists of populations of models rather than single systems.
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Models are fine-tuned from common ancestors, trained on data that earlier models generated, and
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combined by weight merging. These practices couple model generations the way reproduction couples
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biological generations, and they raise the same question: how does a population retain and
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accumulate abilities over time? We transfer the population genetics of sexual reproduction to this
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setting and test it in simulations, small neural networks, and language models. The framework
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recasts continual learning at the population scale and yields design rules: how much real data
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retraining requires, when to combine models, when to keep them separate, and how to anticipate a
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failed combination before making it.
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## Abstract
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AI development increasingly resembles a population process: models are specialised, retrained on model
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output, and recombined by weight merging, with an openly evolutionary vocabulary but little use of
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evolutionary theory. Here we treat multigenerational model populations as systems whose inheritance,
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diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and transfer the quantitative apparatus of the evolution
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of sex. Its entry point — training on model output is genetic drift, and model collapse is its
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signature — we developed independently, and parallel work has now formalised the same diagnosis from
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several directions, a convergence we read as evidence for the frame rather than as a shared discovery
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to be divided. In a
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minimal inheritance model that is exactly Wright–Fisher — and measurably Wright–Fisher-plus-bias in
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trained networks — we derive and test the remedies: grounding as immigration, where a real-data
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fraction far below one retained most equilibrium diversity in the tested settings, with a
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per-capability observation floor that makes the rarest knowledge expensive under unstratified
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sampling; recombination, where refitting to the mean of parents' output distributions cancels the
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multi-parent gain to first order in the rare-item regime while union-preserving operators realise it;
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the Fisher–Muller effect, with merged language-model specialists exceeding every parent in replicated
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experiments; outbreeding depression on rugged task landscapes, converted into reliable gains by
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directed, offspring-screened recombination; and population structure, where the optimal mating breadth
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shrinks as skills entangle. Sex has a limit: we introduce model speciation — merge failure as
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reproductive isolation — and show in trained networks that a merge barrier remaining after
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permutation-and-rescaling alignment tracks functional conflict, that isolation did not emerge from
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compatible specialisation, and, in a controlled predictive test, that pre-merge functional
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disagreement predicted merge damage while the tested weight-geometry baselines showed no detectable
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association. We state precisely what is exact, what is measured, and what remains hypothesis.
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AI development increasingly resembles a population process. Models are specialised, retrained on
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model output, and recombined by weight merging, and the practice is described in evolutionary
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vocabulary with little use of evolutionary theory. We treat multigenerational model populations as
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systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed, and we transfer the
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quantitative framework of the evolution of sex. Its starting point, that training on model output is
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genetic drift and model collapse its signature, we reached independently; parallel work has
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formalised the same diagnosis, a convergence we take as support for the frame. In a minimal
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inheritance model that is exactly Wright–Fisher, and measurably Wright–Fisher plus estimator bias in
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trained networks, we derive and test remedies. Grounding acts as immigration: a real-data fraction
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far below one retained most equilibrium diversity, with a per-capability observation floor that
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makes the rarest knowledge expensive under unstratified sampling. Refitting a child to the mean of
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its parents' output distributions cancels the multi-parent gain to first order in the rare-item
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regime; union-preserving operators realise it. Merged language-model specialists exceeded every
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parent in replicated experiments. Blind recombination fails on rugged task landscapes; screening
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candidate offspring restores the gain. The optimal mating breadth narrows as skills entangle.
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Finally, we introduce model speciation: a merge barrier remaining after permutation-and-rescaling
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alignment tracks functional conflict, isolation did not emerge from compatible specialisation, and
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in a controlled test pre-merge functional disagreement predicted merge damage while weight-geometry
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baselines showed no detectable association.
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---
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## Introduction
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Machine learning has quietly become a population-scale phenomenon. Public repositories now host
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millions of models — Hugging Face alone grew past three million by 2026 — and these are not
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Machine learning has become a population-scale phenomenon. Public repositories host
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millions of models (Hugging Face alone grew past three million by 2026), and these are not
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independent creations: the overwhelming majority are fine-tunes, distillations, or merges of a small
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number of foundation models, forming sprawling family trees whose lineage structure, inherited traits,
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number of foundation models, forming large family trees whose lineage structure, inherited traits,
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and mutation dynamics are already being mapped with explicitly phylogenetic methods (31–33).
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Reproduction in this population is no longer metaphorical. Weight-space **model merging** — the direct
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combination of trained parents into a new model — is mainstream community practice with standard
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tooling and thousands of hybrid checkpoints, including leaderboard-topping ones (1, 2, 37, 38), and
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the engineering literature describes it in openly evolutionary vocabulary: "crossover," "mutation,"
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"mate choice," populations of merging models that climb benchmarks (2–5).
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This population also reproduces. Weight-space **model merging**, the direct combination of trained
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parents into a new model, is mainstream community practice with standard tooling and thousands of
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hybrid checkpoints, including leaderboard-topping ones (1, 2, 37, 38), and the engineering literature
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describes it in evolutionary vocabulary: "crossover," "mutation," "mate choice," populations of
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merging models that climb benchmarks (2–5).
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The generations are coupled through data as well as through weights. Successive models increasingly
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learn from model output rather than from fresh human experience: frontier alignment pipelines are now
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predominantly synthetic — over 98% in documented cases (43, 44) — self-generated instruction data
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predominantly synthetic (over 98% in documented cases; 43, 44), self-generated instruction data
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seeds whole lineages of descendants (5), a large and growing share of the public web is
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machine-generated or machine-translated text (35, 36), and the stock of human text is projected to be
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exhausted by frontier training within this decade (34). Meanwhile persistent multi-agent systems and
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emerging agent economies put many interacting models into sustained contact (39–42). A population
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whose members inherit from one another, recombine, and retransmit under these conditions is an
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evolving population in the technical sense, whatever one thinks of the metaphors. The organising claim
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of this paper is that the vocabulary deserves its mathematics: **multigenerational model populations
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are systems whose inheritance, diversity, and compatibility must be managed — not merely collections
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of models to optimise — and the branch of biology that studies exactly this problem, the population
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genetics of the evolution of sex, transfers as a quantitative framework.**
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evolving population in the technical sense. The claim of this paper is that the vocabulary should be
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given its mathematics: **multigenerational model populations are systems whose inheritance,
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diversity, and compatibility must be managed, not merely collections of models to optimise, and the
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branch of biology that studies exactly this problem, the population genetics of the evolution of sex,
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transfers as a quantitative framework.**
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The frame's entry point is the diagnosis. Training each generation of a model on the previous
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generation's output degrades it — *model collapse*: rare capabilities vanish first and the lineage
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generation's output degrades it (*model collapse*): rare capabilities vanish first and the lineage
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drifts toward its own most common behaviour (6). That this is the mathematics of **genetic drift** in
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a finite population is a conclusion we reached independently in building the present framework, and
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one that has been derived in parallel from several other directions (7–9), including a closed-form
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first-extinction law placing collapse onset at the Wright–Fisher first-extinction time (8) — and that
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first-extinction law placing collapse onset at the Wright–Fisher first-extinction time (8), and that
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was anticipated, before deep learning, in an analysis of sequential inference chains as generalised
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genetic drift (63). We cite these works for priority of publication on the diagnosis and read the
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convergence — independent arrivals at the same population-genetic account by different routes and in
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different decades — as corroboration that the frame is the natural one. What none of that parallel work develops, and what this paper is about, is the
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convergence, independent arrivals at the same population-genetic account by different routes and in
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different decades, as corroboration that the frame is the natural one. What none of that parallel work develops, and what this paper is about, is the
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structure the diagnosis opens: the full arc from drift through its remedies (immigration,
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recombination, selection, population structure) to its limit (reproductive isolation), carried as one
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framework from closed forms to trained networks to language models.
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Seen from machine learning's own history, the problem this frame addresses is the field's oldest —
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**continual learning** — reappearing one level up. Within a single network, sequential learning
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In machine learning's own terms, the problem this frame addresses is the field's oldest,
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**continual learning**, reappearing one level up. Within a single network, sequential learning
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overwrites prior knowledge (catastrophic forgetting; 45, 46), and the discipline's remedies are, one
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by one, the population operators of this paper in single-model form: **rehearsal and replay** of past
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data is grounding's within-lineage counterpart, and the field's empirically settled replay fractions —
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on the order of 1% for instruction tuning (53), 5% for weak and 25% for strong distribution shift in
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continual pretraining (52) — sit exactly where the minimal model's operational grounding threshold
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lies, a correspondence for which the framework supplies the missing theory (equilibrium diversity,
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and a per-capability survival law). **Pseudo-rehearsal** — replaying the network's own generated
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samples, proposed as a cure in 1995 (47) and revived as generative replay (48) — is precisely this
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paper's ungrounded null: immigration from a drifting source, benign for one hop and compounding into
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collapse over generations, with verifier-filtering (12, 62) as what converts it back into grounding.
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data is grounding's within-lineage counterpart, and the field's empirically settled replay fractions,
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on the order of 1% for instruction tuning (53) and 5% to 25% by distribution-shift strength in
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continual pretraining (52), sit where the minimal model's operational grounding threshold lies, a
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correspondence for which the framework supplies the missing theory (equilibrium diversity, and a
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per-capability survival law). **Pseudo-rehearsal**, the replay of the network's own generated
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samples, proposed as a cure in 1995 (47) and revived as generative replay (48), is this paper's
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ungrounded null: immigration from a drifting source, benign for one hop and compounding into
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collapse over generations; verifier-filtering (12, 62) converts it back into grounding.
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**Parameter isolation** (65, and frozen-base adapters, which forget far less; 54) is the engineered
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decorrelation our specialists use; **complementary-learning-systems consolidation** (49–51) is our
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periodic adapter-into-base merge; the recent turn to **merging as a continual-learning mechanism**
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@ -106,32 +100,31 @@ periodic adapter-into-base merge; the recent turn to **merging as a continual-le
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the observation that **rare examples and long-tail knowledge are forgotten first** (59–61) is
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tail-allele extinction observed one model at a time. One distinction is kept explicit throughout:
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catastrophic forgetting is largely deterministic interference from shifted training, whereas collapse
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is stochastic sampling drift — the phenomena share their victims (the rare) and their remedies, not
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their mechanism. To our knowledge, no prior work carries population-genetic formalism into continual
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learning itself; that bridge — replay as immigration with a survival law, merging as recombination
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with a compatibility criterion, consolidation as the slow store of a two-speed memory — is where this
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is stochastic sampling drift; the two phenomena share their victims, the rare, and their remedies, but not their mechanism. To our knowledge, no prior work carries population-genetic formalism into continual
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learning itself; that bridge (replay as immigration with a survival law, merging as recombination with a
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compatibility criterion, consolidation as the slow store of a two-speed memory) is where this
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framework may matter most.
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We are explicit about what kind of contribution each claim is, distinguishing **interpretation** (an existing result understood in population-genetic terms),
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**explanation** (the transferred mechanism accounts for observations existing accounts leave open),
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and **prediction** (the framework forecasts an unmeasured outcome). The paper is strongest on the
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first; makes concrete progress on the second — separating merge failures that are coordinate artefacts
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from those that are functional; and reports a first, bounded step on the third — a controlled
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first; makes concrete progress on the second (separating merge failures that are coordinate artefacts
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from those that are functional); and reports a first, bounded step on the third: a controlled
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predictive test in which pre-merge functional-disagreement measures, chosen by the framework,
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predicted merge damage on a constructed task grid while the tested weight-geometry baselines showed
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no detectable association.
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The correspondences we develop, summarised in Table 1: single-teacher retraining is **asexual
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reproduction**, and the irreversible arm of its decay shares the defining consequence of **Muller's
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ratchet** (10) — once every copy of a rare capability is gone from all parents and sources, no
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ratchet** (10): once every copy of a rare capability is gone from all parents and sources, no
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recombination can rebuild it, which is why remedies must act before fixation-by-loss (a consequence-
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level correspondence: the minimal model lacks the ratchet's recurrent deleterious-mutation mechanism,
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so irreversible loss alone does not identify that specific mechanism). Injecting verified real data is
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**immigration** from a non-drifting source (11–13). Model merging is **recombination**, and its
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celebrated payoff — a merged model exceeding every parent — is the **Fisher–Muller effect** (14, 15).
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central payoff, a merged model exceeding every parent, is the **Fisher–Muller effect** (14, 15).
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Merging entangled skills courts **outbreeding depression**; screening many candidate merges is
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engineered recombination with unusually flexible parent choice and pre-deployment screening (we use
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the shorthand **directed sex**); restricting who merges with whom is **population structure**. And merging's hard limit — models too diverged in function to combine — is **reproductive
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the shorthand **directed sex**); restricting who merges with whom is **population structure**. Merging's hard limit, models too diverged in function to combine, is **reproductive
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isolation**, for which the Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller theory of incompatibilities (16, 17) supplies the
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structure. The nearest precursor to this programme reads sex as an algorithm for mixability in the
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theory of computation (18), pre-dating model merging; the model-merging literature itself has strong
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@ -148,11 +141,11 @@ sensitivity analyses on the predictive test.
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## The minimal model, and where its exactness ends
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Knowledge is modelled as a distribution `p_t` over `K` discrete items — capabilities, facts, modes of
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behaviour — with a fixed true distribution `p*` whose rare tail carries the knowledge most at risk.
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Knowledge is modelled as a distribution `p_t` over `K` discrete items (capabilities, facts, modes of
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behaviour), with a fixed true distribution `p*` whose rare tail carries the knowledge most at risk.
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One generation is: *draw `n` samples from the parent's distribution, optionally mix in `m` verified
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real samples ("grounding", `g = m/(n+m)`), and refit the child*. In this minimal inheritance model the
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resampling step **is** the Wright–Fisher process — the same equations, which we exploit as an
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resampling step **is** the Wright–Fisher process: the same equations, which we exploit as an
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engineering gate: our simulator reproduces the classical closed forms (heterozygosity decay
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`E[H_t] = H_0(1 − 1/n)^t`; the exact immigration–drift equilibrium; the closed-form multi-teacher
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union) to within 0.5%, and these are standing tests in the codebase, not one-off checks.
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@ -163,7 +156,7 @@ exact drift null they deviate in *opposite, architecture-specific* directions: a
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network resists collapse (keeping spurious variants alive), while a sharpening image generator
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accelerates it. A one-parameter **learning kernel** (a smoothing knob and a sharpening knob on the
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refit) reproduces both. Throughout, a real learner is therefore treated as Wright–Fisher *plus a signed, measurable
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estimator bias* — and the drift signs (rare-first loss; the grounding response)
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estimator bias*, and the drift signs (rare-first loss; the grounding response)
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survived that bias in every architecture we tested, including a convolutional VAE retrained on its own
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generated digits, where the dry lineage collapses to a single blurred digit class while 10% grounding
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holds all thirty modes (Fig. 1).
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@ -191,7 +184,7 @@ known limits is SI Appendix, Table S1.
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In the minimal model, grounding from a fixed real source is immigration into a drifting population,
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and the equilibrium diversity has a closed form our simulator matches exactly. That equilibrium is
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*smooth* in the grounding fraction — there is no phase transition in aggregate diversity — so the
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*smooth* in the grounding fraction (there is no phase transition in aggregate diversity), so the
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practical number is an operational threshold, and we define it as such: under the tested population
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size and Zipf source distribution, `g ≈ 0.05` retained most (≥95%) of equilibrium diversity
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indefinitely, with the required fraction depending on sample size, source distribution, and the
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@ -199,7 +192,7 @@ chosen retention target (dependencies in SI). The engineering point survives the
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real data is cheap insurance at fractions far below one. But the same analysis yields a floor the field's
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average-loss framing misses: under unstratified sampling from the source, a capability of rarity `p`
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appears in a real-data batch of size `m` with probability `1 − e^{−m·p}`, so `m·p ≈ 1` marks roughly a
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63% chance of one example per batch — a soft observation floor, with higher confidence priced
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63% chance of one example per batch: a soft observation floor, with higher confidence priced
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accordingly, and with distinct consequences for continuous retention, stationary occupancy, and
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reintroduction after loss (immigration can restore an absent item; SI separates these). Protecting the
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rarest knowledge under unstratified grounding is therefore priced per item at cost `∝ 1/p`; targeted
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@ -209,29 +202,29 @@ looked, with two deviations, both traced to the estimator bias above: sharp thre
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and support-counting metrics decouple from truth (forward-KL is the operative collapse metric for a
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smoothing learner). On real images (Fig. 1B), dry self-training collapses a convolutional VAE to one
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mode while ~10% grounding holds all thirty (the trained model needs roughly twice the exact-operator
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fraction — the measured price of the estimator bias).
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fraction, the measured price of the estimator bias).
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*(FIG:fig1)*
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### Recombination: a conservation law, its operators, and offspring that exceed every parent
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Merging is where the evolution-of-sex apparatus pays for itself, beginning with a result about the
|
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obvious operator, stated with its assumptions. **Proposition (blending inheritance, rare-item
|
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The largest returns from the transfer concern merging. We begin with a result about the most common
|
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operator, stated with its assumptions. **Proposition (blending inheritance, rare-item
|
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regime).** Let K parents independently retain a rare item (mass `p` when retained), and let the child
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draw `n` samples either from one parent chosen at random or from the *mean of the parents' output
|
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distributions*. Expected item mass is identical under the two schemes; and in the rare-item regime
|
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`n·p/K ≪ 1`, where per-item survival is first-order in sampled mass, expected *survival* is also
|
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identical — the 1/K dilution of averaging cancels the K-parent union gain to first order, so in this
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identical: the 1/K dilution of averaging cancels the K-parent union gain to first order, so in this
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regime adding parents through the output-mean does not increase expected tail retention. Two
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boundaries: outside that regime, survival is a convex function of mixed mass, so the variance
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reduction from averaging can *reduce* extinction relative to a randomly chosen single parent — the
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reduction from averaging can *reduce* extinction relative to a randomly chosen single parent; the
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cancellation is a first-order result about rare items, not a universal impossibility; and the
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contrasting union operator (keep each item's strongest source, then renormalise — which itself
|
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redistributes mass, and presupposes a verifier or oracle to identify the strongest source) increases
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contrasting union operator (keep each item's strongest source, then renormalise, which itself
|
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redistributes mass and presupposes a verifier or oracle to identify the strongest source) increases
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expected retention with K in all regimes in the minimal model. The practically important
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operators — **weight averaging** (a nonlinear network's weight-mean does not compute its parents'
|
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operators, **weight averaging** (a nonlinear network's weight-mean does not compute its parents'
|
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output-mean) and **routing among intact specialists** (different storage and inference budgets from a
|
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single child) — are its empirical cousins, and the measured bridge is a **headroom rule**, stated qualitatively: in language models,
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single child), are its empirical cousins, and the measured bridge is a **headroom rule**, stated qualitatively: in language models,
|
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union-preserving operators beat the weight-average where that average falls short of attainable
|
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performance, and add nothing where it does not (easy-versus-hard contrasts at two scales; a
|
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quantitative form of the relationship is untested). On easy tasks a capable base's average is already at ceiling and refinements
|
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@ -240,25 +233,25 @@ and routing wins by a wide margin (Fig. 6A–B).
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The generative payoff is the **Fisher–Muller effect**: recombination assembles, in one offspring,
|
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complementary variants that arose in different lineages, producing a genotype fitter than any parent.
|
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In the multi-locus model, sexual merging of decorrelated specialists climbs to the global optimum — a
|
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genotype no parent held — while the best single parent and the blended average both plateau below
|
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In the multi-locus model, sexual merging of decorrelated specialists climbs to the global optimum, a
|
||||
genotype no parent held, while the best single parent and the blended average both plateau below
|
||||
(Fig. 2). In real language models the signature replicates under seed replication: merges of three
|
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LoRA specialists beat every parent overall (decisively at 7B: 0.87 vs 0.77), and on the sharper
|
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worst-family metric the merged models are the only ones competent everywhere, in every seed (Fig. 6A).
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|
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Sex has risks and, for AI, an unfair advantage — both quantified on rugged (epistatic) NK landscapes
|
||||
(Fig. 3). When skills are entangled, blind recombination produces offspring *below* their parents —
|
||||
**outbreeding depression** — worsening with ruggedness, and the optimal recombination rate shrinks as
|
||||
Sex has risks and, for AI, an unfair advantage, both quantified on rugged (epistatic) NK landscapes
|
||||
(Fig. 3). When skills are entangled, blind recombination produces offspring *below* their parents
|
||||
(**outbreeding depression**), worsening with ruggedness, and the optimal recombination rate shrinks as
|
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entanglement grows. But an engineered population can do what biology cannot: recombine unbounded
|
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parents, choose complementary mates, and *screen many candidate offspring against a verifier before
|
||||
keeping one*. This **directed sex** converts the outbreeding catastrophe into a reliable gain in the
|
||||
model (tracking or exceeding the best parent at every ruggedness) and replicates as a sign in language
|
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models: bred-and-screened merges beat the a-priori blend in every seed on headroom tasks — including
|
||||
models: bred-and-screened merges beat the a-priori blend in every seed on headroom tasks, including
|
||||
one seed where the blend failed catastrophically and selection was immune (Fig. 6A). Finally,
|
||||
population *structure* is itself a knob: sweeping the mate-pool breadth from monogamous (local) to
|
||||
promiscuous (panmictic) against ruggedness, wide mixing maximises the population mean while
|
||||
monotonically destroying diversity, and the best *champion* shifts from wide breadth on smooth
|
||||
landscapes to intermediate breadth on rugged ones (Fig. 3C) — the mating-system phenomenon known to
|
||||
landscapes to intermediate breadth on rugged ones (Fig. 3C), the mating-system phenomenon known to
|
||||
structured-population search, mapped onto merging populations.
|
||||
|
||||
*(FIG:fig2)*
|
||||
|
|
@ -270,15 +263,15 @@ structured-population search, mapped onto merging populations.
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|||
Composing the operators (Fig. 4) requires one definitional distinction first. In the inheritance
|
||||
model, grounding is **grounded inheritance**: external samples added to the reproduction process (the
|
||||
data channel). In the society model, grounding is **grounded evaluation**: selection weights true
|
||||
fitness against conformity to the population's own consensus — `g`·true-fitness + (1−g)·conformity —
|
||||
fitness against conformity to the population's own consensus, `g`·true-fitness + (1−g)·conformity,
|
||||
the analogue of scoring models by the crowd's approval (the fitness channel). These are related design
|
||||
ideas — both couple the lineage to a non-drifting external signal — but they are different operators,
|
||||
ideas, since both couple the lineage to a non-drifting external signal, but they are different operators,
|
||||
and we name them separately. In the tested society (a finite agent population on a rugged NK
|
||||
landscape), a four-arm ablation separates the failure modes: the full system (grounded evaluation +
|
||||
directed recombination + diversity-preserving selection) climbs to near the global optimum while
|
||||
keeping its specialists; removing grounded evaluation converges the population confidently on an unfit
|
||||
consensus (self-consumption); removing recombination strands it on local optima; removing diversity
|
||||
converges it prematurely to a worse answer. Each removal fails differently — the three implementations
|
||||
converges it prematurely to a worse answer. Each removal fails differently; the three implementations
|
||||
make complementary contributions *under the tested conditions*; general joint necessity is not
|
||||
established (alternative mutation, restart, archive, or selection schemes could alter the picture). At
|
||||
language-model scale this composed loop remains unbuilt; it is the paper's largest stated gap.
|
||||
|
|
@ -288,12 +281,12 @@ language-model scale this composed loop remains unbuilt; it is the paper's large
|
|||
### The limit of sex: model speciation
|
||||
|
||||
Recombination presupposes compatible parents. In biology, lineages pushed far enough apart become
|
||||
separate species — **reproductive isolation** — through Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities:
|
||||
separate species (**reproductive isolation**) through Bateson–Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities:
|
||||
changes harmless on their own background but deleterious in combination. A merged model is exactly the
|
||||
exposed hybrid. We built the analytic model (Fig. 5A): hybrid fitness tracks the parents while
|
||||
compatible, then peels off and crashes below the ancestor; the isolation cliff arrives earlier the
|
||||
denser the incompatibilities; and the incompatibility *count* snowballs quadratically with divergence
|
||||
(17) — noting that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
|
||||
(17). We note that a super-linear count does not by itself entail a sharp performance cliff without
|
||||
the count-to-effect-size link, which the analytic model supplies under its assumptions and any neural
|
||||
test must establish separately.
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -303,22 +296,22 @@ richer symmetry groups remove more (24). We therefore aligned under the composit
|
|||
permutation matching and exact per-unit rescaling (the unit symmetry group of plain ReLU MLPs, as the
|
||||
search space) and decomposed the barrier (Fig. 5B): two networks trained from different
|
||||
initialisations on the *same* task have a barrier that this alignment removes essentially entirely
|
||||
(residual ≈ 0.001, the aligned merge performing at parent level) — coordinate, not functional; two
|
||||
(residual ≈ 0.001, the aligned merge performing at parent level): coordinate, not functional; two
|
||||
networks trained on *conflicting* label maps have a barrier the same alignment leaves largely
|
||||
unchanged (0.502 → 0.497), with the merged model functionally dead. The tested alignment removes the
|
||||
same-task barrier but leaves the conflict-associated barrier intact — supporting a functional-conflict
|
||||
same-task barrier but leaves the conflict-associated barrier intact, supporting a functional-conflict
|
||||
interpretation without proving optimal alignment: exact recovery of a permuted-and-rescaled copy
|
||||
validates a special case, so the removable share is a lower bound and the residual an upper bound.
|
||||
Sweeping conflict traces the cliff as hybrid fitness, 0.97 → 0.03. The conflict floor itself is
|
||||
information-theoretic — no single model can satisfy contradictory conventions (SI Appendix,
|
||||
Proposition S2) — with the framework's role being the *structure around it*: which divergences
|
||||
information-theoretic (no single model can satisfy contradictory conventions; SI Appendix,
|
||||
Proposition S2), with the framework's role being the *structure around it*: which divergences
|
||||
generate conflict, and what moves the cliff.
|
||||
|
||||
The strongest constraint comes from the pre-registered **emergent test**: true BDM incompatibilities are
|
||||
emergent (each lineage's changes harmless alone), so we let children diverge with *no conflicting
|
||||
signal anywhere* — complementary class specialists, and divergent input conventions — to 6.4× the base
|
||||
signal anywhere*, using complementary class specialists and divergent input conventions, to 6.4× the base
|
||||
training. **No isolation emerged** (residual 0.000 throughout); instead the merge *rescued* the two
|
||||
catastrophically-forgetting specialists (parents ≈ 0.50, merge ≈ 0.955 — a sustained Fisher–Muller
|
||||
catastrophically-forgetting specialists (parents ≈ 0.50, merge ≈ 0.955, a sustained Fisher–Muller
|
||||
rescue). The same double result appears at the language-model tier (Fig. 5C): conflicting conventions
|
||||
produce **function-specific** hybrid breakdown (the merge scores below both parents on the conflicted
|
||||
function, while a budget-controlled design shows the disjoint skills merge unharmed), and over-training
|
||||
|
|
@ -382,7 +375,7 @@ are the experiment's open front.
|
|||
|
||||
## Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
**Design rules.** Read as engineering, the results compress into rules an operator of a model
|
||||
**Design rules.** As engineering guidance, the results reduce to rules that an operator of a model
|
||||
population can apply. *Ground every generation* in verified reality — a few percent retained most diversity in our tested
|
||||
settings — but price the rarest capabilities individually (observation probability `1 − e^{−m·p}` per
|
||||
batch under unstratified sampling), consider targeted sampling for the deep tail, and use
|
||||
|
|
@ -399,9 +392,9 @@ evidence of incompatibility* — in every regime we tested, what broke merging w
|
|||
conventions on shared circuitry, which is the thing to detect.
|
||||
|
||||
**What this offers continual learning.** Read into the field where these results most directly land:
|
||||
(i) a first-principles account of the **replay ratio** — the folklore constants (≈1%, 5%, 25%; 52, 53)
|
||||
(i) a first-principles account of the **replay ratio**: the field's constants (≈1%, 5%, 25%; 52, 53)
|
||||
acquire an equilibrium theory and a sharper prediction, that the required fraction is set by the
|
||||
rarest capability one refuses to lose (the `1 − e^{−m·p}` law), not by average loss — directly
|
||||
rarest capability one refuses to lose (the `1 − e^{−m·p}` law) rather than by average loss, which is
|
||||
testable against published replay sweeps; (ii) a **failure theory for generative replay**:
|
||||
self-generated rehearsal is safe for short horizons and compounds into collapse across generations
|
||||
unless verifier-filtered back into grounding (47, 48, 12, 62); (iii) **pre-merge interference
|
||||
|
|
@ -416,7 +409,7 @@ capabilities hides exactly the losses that drift theory says come first and, pas
|
|||
irreversible. On that last point we note the standing objection that apparent forgetting can be
|
||||
skewed task-inference over latent capability rather than erasure (64); our irreversibility results
|
||||
concern oracle-measured behavioural distributions, and distinguishing latent from extinct capability
|
||||
at language-model scale is an open and, we think, decisive experiment for both readings.
|
||||
at language-model scale is an open experiment whose outcome would be decisive for both readings.
|
||||
|
||||
**What is borrowed and what is ours.** The diagnosis — collapse as drift — was published first by
|
||||
others and we cite it so (6–9), while noting the derivations are independent and convergent; prior art
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
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