Layer 1 complete: E3-E6 + E2 analysis add-ons

Finishes the Layer 1 analytical core. All six experiments run with honest,
publication-quality figures; 71 tests green.

- E3 region-matched grounding: `grounding.exercised` knob + per-region tail
  survival. Matched holds the exercised region's tail (0.49) where uniform
  spreads thin and lets it collapse (0.07).
- E4 multi-teacher recombination: `run_coverage` runner. Union coverage matches
  U(K_T,rho,q) exactly. Finding: mean-mixture distillation shows NO surviving
  benefit (a conservation law — 1/K_T dilution cancels the union gain); a
  union-preserving max-merge (M2N2-style) does. E4 reports both operators.
- E5 QD vs greedy: greedy drives fixation (H~0.01); QD holds H at 0.48-0.88,
  rising with the novelty exponent.
- E6 re-mint gate: `arm` multi-override sweep. Re-minting a collapsed lineage
  locks in divergence of KL-to-original; gating on diversity prevents it.
- E2 analysis add-ons (from the companion work order, numbers verified): new
  analysis.py (reduce_to_stationary, critical_grounding with bootstrap CI ->
  g*=0.048, 95% CI [0.047,0.050]); tail_band_metrics + per-band logging; the
  E2 figure rebuilt as a 2x2 (defined g*+CI, g=0 flagged as a finite-time
  artifact, tail item-vs-mass, per-rarity-band panel). Uses truth-mass-weighted
  tail coverage rather than the raw (martingale) tail_mass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

results/E3/manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "experiment": "E3_region_matched_grounding",
+  "master_seed": 20260704,
+  "git_commit": "a6eb9b75124779375fa1a0b3a64115ecd705b218",
+  "python": "3.14.5",
+  "libraries": {
+    "numpy": "2.5.0",
+    "scipy": "1.18.0",
+    "pandas": "3.0.3",
+    "pyarrow": "24.0.0"
+  },
+  "rows": 80200,
+  "results_sha256": "7ae056faf8db591a913087004068d0e732f10b0244cdc6a78bb72a691f4b8604"
+}

results/E3/resolved_config.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+experiment: E3_region_matched_grounding
+seed: 20260704
+n_replicates: 100
+source_config:
+  experiment: E3_region_matched_grounding
+  seed: 20260704
+  n_replicates: 100
+  generations: 400
+  truth:
+    K: 1000
+    R: 10
+    tail: zipf
+    zipf_s: 1.1
+    tail_frac: 0.5
+    tail_threshold: 0.001
+    init: truth
+  dynamics:
+    n: 200
+    teachers:
+      K_T: 1
+      rho: 0.0
+      q: 1.0
+    grounding:
+      m: 100
+      policy: uniform
+      exercised:
+      - 0
+    selection:
+      mode: none
+      novelty_alpha: 0.0
+    remint:
+      enabled: false
+      period: null
+      H_gate: null
+  metrics:
+    kl_floor: 1.0e-09
+    support_eps: 1.0e-09
+  sweep:
+  - param: dynamics.grounding.policy
+    values:
+    - uniform
+    - matched
+  output:
+    dir: results/E3
+grid:
+- label:
+    policy: uniform
+  lineage_cfg:
+    truth:
+      K: 1000
+      R: 10
+      tail: zipf
+      zipf_s: 1.1
+      tail_frac: 0.5
+      tail_threshold: 0.001
+      init: truth
+    dynamics:
+      n: 200
+      teachers:
+        K_T: 1
+        rho: 0.0
+        q: 1.0
+      grounding:
+        m: 100
+        policy: uniform
+        exercised:
+        - 0
+      selection:
+        mode: none
+        novelty_alpha: 0.0
+      remint:
+        enabled: false
+        period: null
+        H_gate: null
+    generations: 400
+    metrics:
+      kl_floor: 1.0e-09
+      support_eps: 1.0e-09
+- label:
+    policy: matched
+  lineage_cfg:
+    truth:
+      K: 1000
+      R: 10
+      tail: zipf
+      zipf_s: 1.1
+      tail_frac: 0.5
+      tail_threshold: 0.001
+      init: truth
+    dynamics:
+      n: 200
+      teachers:
+        K_T: 1
+        rho: 0.0
+        q: 1.0
+      grounding:
+        m: 100
+        policy: matched
+        exercised:
+        - 0
+      selection:
+        mode: none
+        novelty_alpha: 0.0
+      remint:
+        enabled: false
+        period: null
+        H_gate: null
+    generations: 400
+    metrics:
+      kl_floor: 1.0e-09
+      support_eps: 1.0e-09