Layer 1 complete: E3-E6 + E2 analysis add-ons

Finishes the Layer 1 analytical core. All six experiments run with honest,
publication-quality figures; 71 tests green.

- E3 region-matched grounding: `grounding.exercised` knob + per-region tail
  survival. Matched holds the exercised region's tail (0.49) where uniform
  spreads thin and lets it collapse (0.07).
- E4 multi-teacher recombination: `run_coverage` runner. Union coverage matches
  U(K_T,rho,q) exactly. Finding: mean-mixture distillation shows NO surviving
  benefit (a conservation law — 1/K_T dilution cancels the union gain); a
  union-preserving max-merge (M2N2-style) does. E4 reports both operators.
- E5 QD vs greedy: greedy drives fixation (H~0.01); QD holds H at 0.48-0.88,
  rising with the novelty exponent.
- E6 re-mint gate: `arm` multi-override sweep. Re-minting a collapsed lineage
  locks in divergence of KL-to-original; gating on diversity prevents it.
- E2 analysis add-ons (from the companion work order, numbers verified): new
  analysis.py (reduce_to_stationary, critical_grounding with bootstrap CI ->
  g*=0.048, 95% CI [0.047,0.050]); tail_band_metrics + per-band logging; the
  E2 figure rebuilt as a 2x2 (defined g*+CI, g=0 flagged as a finite-time
  artifact, tail item-vs-mass, per-rarity-band panel). Uses truth-mass-weighted
  tail coverage rather than the raw (martingale) tail_mass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Giorgio Gilestro 2026-07-04 18:54:42 +02:00
parent a6eb9b7512
commit 1721d047fa
42 changed files with 1938 additions and 135 deletions

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configs/layer1/E4.yaml Normal file
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experiment: E4_multiteacher_decorrelation
kind: coverage
seed: 20260704
n_replicates: 200
# Multi-teacher recombination (blueprint 2.5-E4 / 2.7.1). Build K_T teachers with exact
# marginal retention q and pairwise retention-correlation rho, form the pupil from their
# mixture (n draws total = matched budget), and report TWO coverages:
# union_coverage -> construction-level U(K_T,rho,q) (must match the closed form)
# surviving_coverage-> tail items that survive the pupil's size-n resampling (+ grounding)
# Expect: both rise with K_T and (1-rho); at rho=1 many teachers give no benefit over one;
# the union-surviving gap shrinks as grounding g rises.
truth:
K: 500
R: 1
tail: zipf
zipf_s: 1.1
tail_frac: 0.5
tail_threshold: 2.0e-3
coverage:
n: 300 # pupil sample size (matched budget across teachers)
q: 0.5 # per-teacher marginal tail retention
sweep:
- param: K_T
values: [1, 2, 3, 5]
- param: rho
values: [0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0]
- param: g
values: [0.0, 0.02, 0.05]
output:
dir: results/E4